When using insidevs nice monthly scorecard of plug-in sales, it is very interesting.
After four months of sales including introduction of new models, slacking off of older models and more "friends and family" recommendations of plug-in cars, the YoY growth rate of the first four months of sales is as follows:
after four months into the year:
2014 vs. 2013 - growth just over 21%
2013 vs. 2012 - growth of 145%
Some have said they expect plug ins to grow by 50% this year - many industry analysts and advocates. I have posted here that I doubted 35% growth in the US was possible this year. So far, we are seeing even worse plug-in growth. And I can't explain it. What we have heard is Atlanta was a hot-bed of Leaf sales due to the high incentives there. Some states offer $2.5K or more for a state rebate (ie. CO, GA, PA) no sales tax in NJ and good incentives in MD. There should just be more buyers.
We have heard of "exponential sales growth" for some EV companies. This is not showing up in the numbers. And what you can also see is some pretty good growth in plug-in EREV (Extended Range EVs) such as Ford's models (Energi) with slacking off of GM's Volt (due to poor dealership support).
Use these numbers to understand that the demand is out there - that people "want" an EV or even a Tesla. but doing the numbers, people end up thinking "economically, that's too much to swallow" making a change to EVs. My own personal experience is I got a Volt in mid-2012. Really like the car but the only compelling features are - smooth ride, cool tech, cuts gasoline use by at least 75%. Most consumers will say "so what? I have other things to think about." It's a geek car. I'm a geek. EV drivers are currently in hobbyist mode and we enjoy the differentiator. But the sales are just not there yet. People have issues. They go through divorces, have high debt, student loans, spend their paychecks every week. "hand to mouth" society is not ready yet for EVs.
Tesla is supposed to sell 20,000 Model S cars in the USA this year. They aren't going to do that.
GM is supposed to sell 120,000 Volts this year. Not going to happen.
Will Think sell 20,000 City cars in 2014 as planned? I have my doubts.
How about 75,000 Fisker Nina's this year ? That's not looking good.
Sorry to be so blunt but the failure of the EV revolution is relevant. People are not buying EVs. Because they don't want EVs.
Tesla sales in California are dropping. These are the most profitable sales because Tesla earns ZEV credits for them. Tesla is now expanding into thinner markets. China doesn't subsidize Tesla cars, in fact, it slaps these cars with a $40,000 tax.
jmc, Latest Yahoo headline:
"When it shares its results late Wednesday, the maker of luxury electric vehicles is expected to say its profit for the first quarter slipped by two cents per share from a year ago to $0.10. And that consensus estimate is down in the past 60 days from $0.13 a share."
But here is the big thing, and as you have said in numerous posts, jmc, it is the guidance...it is that growth meant to justify the giggacrappery, etc., the 500,000 vehicle target which is important:
"However, the forecast calls for quarterly revenues from Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) of $699.10 million, which would be up more than 24 percent year on year. Analysts thus far are looking for a more than 48 percent gain in revenue for the current quarter, as well as more than 47 percent higher than a year ago for the full year."
..this 48% gain is based on that lofty 500,000 vehicles by 2020, 2021..(I guess..?). ..like I said, if they need to grow 50% a year, then generally, this means 50% higher numbers than the same quarter a year earlier...Though we are talking only one model at the time..where are the other models, really, WHEN?
I am risk off.. but think it will become clear, Tesla will be looking less and less like the golden goose and more and more like we were golden goosed.
((We have heard of "exponential sales growth" for some EV companies. This is not showing up in the numbers. And what you can also see is some pretty good growth in plug-in EREV (Extended Range EVs) such as Ford's models (Energi) with slacking off of GM's Volt (due to poor dealership support).))
FORD FUSION Hybrid: wiki
"Since 2009 a total of 143,339 units of the Fusion hybrid family, including the Energi plug-in hybrid, have been sold in the United States through March 2014.U.S. 9,606 for Q1 2014. Total sales were 37, 270 in 2013. The Fusion Hybrid sales increased 164.3% from 2012 and ended 2013 as the fourth top selling hybrid in the U.S. after the Prius liftback, the Prius c and the Toyota Camry Hybrid."
So, 37,270 year 2013 sales for Fusion put it behind Prius and Camry hybrid, and that was a 164% growth over 2012..like you were saying. Yeah , those are hybrids...so what? Where is similar demand for the all electric lemon Tesla? Why are people so excited about Tesla's small numbers?