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Leading Brands Inc. Message Board

  • dtmccune3 dtmccune3 Apr 10, 2007 10:41 AM Flag

    Funny...REED.OB

    So how funny is it that REED.OB is getting the valuation they are...and LBIX is getting the valuation its getting?

    It is a frickin joke...

    And I won't even mention JSDA...

    But anyway, you look at LBIX's prospects and it is easy to see how this could be a $20 in a few years (similar to what JSDA did)...True Blue is a hit, with the potential of being huge especially if people start mixing it with alcohol as some people have mentioned.

    With how Walmart Canada has done and LBIX announcing Kroger (who is WMT's main competition in the midwest)...it seems like the probability of LBIX announcing Walmart U.S. is now more of a question of WHEN instead of IF.

    Then we still have Publix, Whole Foods...etc

    ...and then the convenience store chains...which they will attack with the even higher margin 16 oz bottles later on.

    Success with Trueblue will also give then more leverage to possibly gain more traction with the Trek brand...I know this is not a new brand, but with the new marketing, with the 2nd place award they just received, and the leverage from Trueblue they get...it gives Trek a much better chance now. Not sure about Caesar's at this point...seems like that will be limited to a niche product in the South and Canada...but still better that it is an LBIX brand vs a licensed brand...

    On the co-pack side...they will get a payment of over $1m from HANS for the termination of the energy drink deal they signed...they have already added an additional water (Icelandic) and sounds like they have a few different brands ready to step in to take the place of Monster. Obviously, it will take time to replace Monster, but I think Ralph is right...it opens up the restrictions to be able to sell other energy drinks in Canada and MORE IMPORTANTLY energy drinks in the U.S....luckily this transition will be in the seasonally strong part of the year for beverages...and the plans for an eastern facility will also help margins down the road when they decide what to do there...so things are actually going pretty well on that side of the business...and really if you think about it is was just a bad HEADLINE for LBIX rather than something that is really going to hurt their business...b/c I don't think there are many smart people that are in LBIX for their co-pack biz...

    On top of that LBIX is paying almost .07/share eps a quarter in slotting fees...it is hard to know the timing, but what I do know is that slotting fees are a one time payment...but that it is amortized over 4 quarters...so by this time next year what they have paid in slotting fees goes away.....of course that will be replaced by slotting fees at Kroger and the other potential new chains they get...but the point is that they WON'T be paying those fees on the stores they are paying right now...in other words eps will be a lot higher...eps this time next year could easily be .20/share higher just from old slotting fees going away



    THIS IS A NO BRAINER...

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    • I agree totally but 3 facts remain.

      1. Q4 is the weak quarter for LBIX and the US dollar was strong during that quarter.
      2. Tons of uncertainity. I cant tell you how the revenue #s or EPS will be for the next fiscal year. We have to see the effects of Monster Energy as well the effects of moving to the LBIX owned plant.
      3. True Blue still a work in progress in the US. Great Product, but signs of success are mixed. Certain locations do much better than others. Still questions about the price point.
      4. I live next to Kroger, where is my True Blue?

      What I can tell ya.

      1. LBIX gets about 1/3 of the valuation other companies in this sector gets.
      2. True Blue revenue is much better than distribution (Monster) revenue. TB should continue a triple digit growth this year.
      3. The Walmart news does forshadow the eventual listing at Walmart but that if my calander is correct, will come around March 2008. Walmart takes awhile to sign due to the fact that they will look at Kroger results. I'll take a page from McRae "Walmart is not years away, but its not months away either"

      I am looking to add to my position now that we're falling again. I bought some shares today, will buy on dips. I want 1% of this company but I want it once I think the uncertainies have past. I'd be willing to pay $4 a share if I saw a growing company with profit in this sector. In this sector, LBIX should be worth $6-$8, and with Monster this should have been double digits.... BUT the current fundamentals I believe will be a declining revenue company that posts slight losses. When does this change.. that is the question.

      If someone where to buy this company tomorrow though, shareholders would get $5+ per share and LBIX does have assets of value. There are many companies that could do well with a True Blue.

      Therefore, its a solid HOLD right now.

      --Sage

    • The current valuation is a result of management continuing to say one thing, then doing another, and the street isn't buying the story anymore. Massive insider dumping (is it finally over with Ralph?) prior to the loss of the Monster distribution agreement just adds fuel to the fire, along with withdrawel of previously posted material from the web site and statements by the CEO of "undervalued shares" while the price was at $5.

      Until there is a plan in place to show a clear path to profits, along with follow thru on previous statements (like east coast production to serve the midwest and southern states) this stock is going nowhere but down.

      The true valuation is arrived every day at the closing bell, regardless of shareholders opinions.

      • 1 Reply to bovman
      • yes bovman we already got the point , you hope this keeps going down every day..thats why you take time out of your everyday life just too post some messages about lbix. I have a question about shelf height . its not about all the poor managment or lbix disapearing off the earth. as far as safeway goes is the top space the least expensive for slotting fees? I wonder whats the difference in price compared to the bottom shelf . I always buy products from the bottom shelf..most everyone does not look up, its not natural thats why us tall guys always bump our heads. this top shelf safeway is b.s ..they are high shelfs..like i said if only one jug was sold, most people would not know onother was behind it (out of sight) kroger will be a huge success no matter what shelv it is sold on.

    • at my local safeway I have to look up to see t-blue on the shelf and I am a little on the tall side at 6'5". I notice when 1 jug is sold on the top shelf the other one behind it is almost out of sight, not sure if all safeway shelves are all the same height, if so t-blue would sell much better on the bottom shelf. at my local fred meyer store (kroger) the top shelf is eye level to me. if t-blue is positioned on the top shelf at fred meyer the sales would be much greater compared to safeway.
      I hope sales continue to grow at my local safeway , but to be honest very few sell because of the extream shelf height, many people cant even reach them. I also notice fred meyer is a bit more pricy compared to safeway, I think people will pay a little extra for a quality drink like t-blue.

      • 2 Replies to cartooonbrickwall
      • Whenever I visit my local Safeway to pick up more True Blue
        I alwaya print out a bunch of $1 off coupons. This may help bring the curious into the fold of folks who love this drink.

        Summer is almost here and what better way to enjoy it then
        to fill the ice cube tray up with True Blue.
        Little ones as well as adults enjoy this refreshing treat.

        True Blue is a hit!

        mike :-)

      • I noticed that at my Safeway the product is way too high for me to reach. Had to get a manager to get it for me and he had to really stretch to get it. Not many people will bother to look for help and will just go for another product. Also, my Safeway only had about 4 bottles of it on the shelf. What's happening with Safeway? My Fred Meyer doesn't even have it. I was told that they don't have to carry a product just because Kroger owns them.

    • well put.

 
LBIX
4.0431+0.0251(+0.62%)Nov 21 11:47 AMEST

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