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Telik Inc. Message Board

  • phd_bioeng phd_bioeng Jan 13, 2006 3:23 PM Flag

    Cynical About Simultaneous Announcement

    Ok, my problem is that this sounds like a gee we already know that Telcyta failed in at least one trail and we are hoping to save the day by announcing positive results for 1 of the 3 trials. Makes me nervous, wouldn't buy it, but I probably wouldn't sell it either. However, I wouldn't count on the stock going up if they only announce a 1/3 success rate.

    Let's face it, if they announced positive results separately for three trials, assuming positive results exist, the stock price and shareholders would get a much bigger bang for their buck

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    • Everyone already knows that assist-2 is damaged
      goods - it used iressa as a benchmark for
      2nd line treatment rather than Tarceva.

      Assist 3 was basically a supporting trial that
      would enhance the label for ovarian cancer
      IF the assist 1 trial is successful.

      Assist 1 is the one that counts.

      So, if they are releasing results simultaneously
      it really won't matter as assist 1 is going
      to be first study completed (by deduction
      given prior statements on assist-2 enrollment
      and assist-3 completion).

      Telk has fast track and an SPA for ovarian.

      yada yada yada. It's all good, just
      not as good as before.

      • 1 Reply to cjboylan
      • Iressa is very well studied and it will serve as a good standard. As long as ASSIST 2 trial documents EGFR protein kinase mutation or skin rash status, it will be OK. Oncologists including TJ Lynch of MGH and Harvard Med have high opinions about Iressa. Last year, Lynch said that he was hopeful that Iressa would eventually be resurrected by FDA. Subpopulations of NSCLC tumors(Asian or tumors with EGFR pk mutations) respond remarkably well. The response rates among Japanese and Chinese patients are as high as 60-80%. The overall survival rate is comparable to Tarceva for the subpopution with pk mutations. A problem I see is that the size of the trial is only 200 and it will include only about 16 patients (8%) with the mutation.

        The real killer application of Telcyta is the triplet or doublet combo against NSCLC, of course. The small studies announced last May
        were remarkable. One of the study was led by Lynch mentioned above.

    • "my problem is that this sounds like a gee we already know that Telcyta failed in at least one trail..."

      One big problem with your theory - you have no evidence whatsoever that this is the case.

      You're clueless. It's just a conservative move to get all trial data in front of them before the business decisions are made.

      • 1 Reply to btech21st
      • I finally had time to listen to the jp morgan
        cc and I never heard any explanation of why
        they are unblinding at the sametime - perhaps
        this was discussed in the Q/A session. Anyone
        there for it?

        I read a note from Prudential on fidelity that
        (according to pru) they are unblinded and announcing
        after the last study completes. That would make more sense.

        Both Lehman and prudential seem to be some
        what negative on outcomes of these trials.

        I would really like to buy a current Needham
        report if anyone knows where to obtain such.
        I thought their analyst was pretty pragmatic.

    • PGS--

      Thanks for the recommendation on HQH. You are a real asset to the message board community. Could you tell me what HQH top 5 investments are or where I can look to find them? I am ready to lower my individual "bets" and to save days, weeks, years of my life by not following my individual stocks so closely. TIA

    • hopingsomeonewillspillthebeans hopingsomeonewillspillthebeans Jan 20, 2006 9:37 AM Flag

      go to http://www.etfconnect.com/ they'll show returns, holdings, and give you a link to H&Q, look at the Powershares Biotech and Genomic (PBE) go to www.powershares.com

      be careful with the H7Q closed end funds because they have a mandatory distribution rate of 10% per annum, they pay out both dividends and principal, and allow you to reinvest, if in a taxable account it can be tedious, jmho

    • Thanks for the feedback and the advice. I was thinking mostly of investing IRAs in H&Q and playing with more risky individual stocks in a taxable account (which works better for tax purposes, including if big losses come occassionally).

    • >I was thinking mostly of investing IRAs in H&Q<

      Yeah, I think that's the way to go. I hold mine in a Roth.

      Good luck.

    • hopingsomeonewillspillthebeans hopingsomeonewillspillthebeans Jan 23, 2006 10:18 AM Flag

      I think thats smart, on HQL and HQH, don't forget about looking at PBE, (www.powershares.com), good luck!!

 
TELK
0.7101-0.0899(-11.24%)Aug 21 12:42 PMEDT

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