The SUCCESS OF TELCYTA in ASSIST-1 and ASSIST-3, which now appears IMMINENT, will ensure FDA APPROVAL in 2nd line and 3rd line treatments of ovarian cancer.
THIS SUCCESS WILL ELIMINATE ALL OF THE RISK IN TELK since it will become CLEAR that TELK's flagship drug, TELCYTA, will be able to help millions of patients worldwide -- reslting in VERY SUBSTANTIAL REVENUES for TELK.
And since the TRIAL DURATIONS of ASSIST-1 and ASSIST-2 have been extended from the original expected values, THERE IS A VERY STRONG INDICATION THAT BOTH ASSIST-1 and ASSIST-3 are a HUGE SUCCESS.
The ADDITIONAL EXPECTED SUCCESS of TELCYTA in ASSIST-2 will allow TELK to quickly file for 3rd line treatment in NSCLC. That will be the ICING on the TELCYTA CAKE.
So with the EVAPORATION OF the RISK in TELK, to which analysts had tentatively assigned a very high risk, INVESTORS WILL FEEL CONFIDENT TO BUY AS MANY TELK SHARES AS THEY CAN AFFORD -- PARTICULARLY THE TOP FIVE TELK-OWNING INSTITUTIONS, which now OWN nearly TWO-THIRDS OF TELK.
As a result, look for an OSIP-LIKE DAY on the day of the announcement.
It will all be history soon!!
NoT! and here is why! Lung is much larger than Ovarian. Now lets look at the ovarian Market.
1st line - Taxol/Carbo
2nd line - Carbo or Cis
3rd line - one could rechallange with a platinum agent or go to Doxil or switch to weekly Platinum. One could even try Taxotere + weekly Carbo!
4th line Telcyta + Taxol Carbo?
Bottom line is you'll be waiting 5 years to get newly diagonised patients! Market will be very small! Like the size of a pea which means they will have to charge $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for a drug added to Taxol+Carbo.
Last point is that by the time a patients makes it to 4th line they will be so sick of treatment they will say " Let me Die please" Most of you think it will move up to first line. It could but it will take several years to get data. Cost will be a big issue.
Stock has been hammered down to 17 and will climb to 19 before data release. If good it will go to 22-25! NO big pop. GO look at Oxigene for a good reference. Went down upon approval. Look at LLY approval in ovarian. No effect on stock price!
What would really move the stock is a buyout or partner like PFE. They just made a billion dollar blunder so I gurantee you that PFE and Big Pharma is very gun shy after watching PFE Screw up! Watch Mercks little darling go to pieces too!
Whooper94025 you said -
"A-4 is moving along, of the 52 sites that did recruiting only the Univ of MD is still recruiting. If A-4 matches Ph II who cares about A-1, A-2 and A-3."
ASSIST-4 is in the planning stage only and has not formally launched for patient recruitment. The Phase II Triplet Trial of Taxol-Carbo-Telcyta only has one site open and that is Univ of Maryland. All the others sites are closed which to me seems odd.
I think you are 100% correct and bb and wick knows something that we would all like to know and that would be the one that buys us out or becomes a world partner. This is why bb is buying so much,they cant loose****
My thinking is the same as ftod's. But I would add a third consideration: the Ph II results for ASSIST-4. This is more impressive than A-1, A-2 or A3 combined, and to pacify PGS's concerns it is for nsclc. A-4 is moving along, of the 52 sites that did recruiting only the Univ of MD is still recruiting. If A-4 matches Ph II who cares about A-1, A-2 and A-3.
My fortitude doesn't rely on the length of the ASSIST-1 trial. I am doing my best on these mbs to keep an open mind to what is true and reliable. What keeps me invested in TELK now is:
1) The strength and consistency of the Ph II trials
2) The large institutional ownership. Especially the biggest fund owners.
The outcomes of single blinded trials performed at multiple centers are open to investigation by a large fund with resources. The docs who give these drugs cannot be blinded to who receives them. And an aware patient could also know.
If Fidelity and Eastbourne (BB), etc... have tens - hundreds of millions invested, they probably have people on the ground checking the investigative sites. It is an open secret that the SEC doesn't particularly care if a hedge fund pays $1000/hr to an M.D. 'advisor' who may be close to an investigator. One Florida hedge fund owner, a few years back, even admitted to posing as a patient with fake sxs to try to become a subject in a crucial trial. Other than bad press, I don't think there were any consequences.
Heck, even the recent Prudential analyst's report ADMITTED to surveying some docs involved with the ASSIST trials. They reported unenthusiastic responses. I'll bet Fidelity, BB, and the rest have dug deeper.
ALL INVESTORS should keep in mind that, according to TELK (stated several times), the originally expected date for the ASSIST-1 TRIGGER EVENT was JAN 1, 2006. That date would have clearly given TELCYTA a BETTER MEDIAN SURVIVAL RATE than Doxil (or TELK would't have planned for it).
Instead, the TRIGGER EVENT FOR TELCYTA TOOK PLACE about NINE MONTHS LATER (!!).
That is MORE THAN CONVINCING for ME and it should convince all skeptics. However, if there still are some posters who honestly believe that is not enough, LET THEM WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE RESULTS. Perhaps they can enjoy TELK's expected SHARP RISE from the sidelines <gggg>.
It will all be history soon!!