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Airspan Networks, Inc. (AIRN) Message Board

  • bottomisinreadytogo bottomisinreadytogo Sep 24, 2002 11:48 PM Flag

    Amazing value...

    AIRN is trading at about 1/4 cash value with almost zero debt. Compared to a lot of companies, their business prospects aren't so bad either. The cash will last a very long time at the current burn rate and orders are still coming in for their products. The balance sheet is amazing too-- $87.7 million in stockholder equity, almost all of which is from hard assets. AIRN is missing only one thing-- attention. Once people begin to discover this incredible value the price will move way up and everyone will look back and wonder how AIRN was ever trading at 43 cents. Soak up some shares now while nobody is looking, wait a few months and wish you'd bought more...

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    • Agreed. ENWV has the cash but the burn is a little disconcerting. After subtracting the accounts payable and other debt I'm still coming up with about 1.90/sh in cash which is great. However that will be reduced by 5.5mil (.62/sh) this quarter for the Signal asset acqusistion and the severance packages bringnig it down to about 1.28 before other quarterly losses. They are battening down the hatches in anticipation of no industry pickup until 2004 which I think is smart. I don't plan on wating around that long, but I think it may be good for a shorter term bounce if they can gain efficiencies and contracts with through the Signal acquisition. AIRN seems to be much safer and offer greater upside than ENWV (and probably all other investements that I'm) in but I just don't want to put all my eggs in one basket.

    • I've checked out some of your other stocks from your website, and we do have fairly similar tastes. I looked at TWAV on Friday after you mentioned it and was not overly impressed. The "net cash" looked like about .50 as I recall. And the high volume breakdown on Friday also lookied pretty scary, although it looks like it found some mid-day support at .90. I'm wondering what makes it so appealing to you. Just curious (I sure can't argue with your track record). What is your take on the selloff? Just end of quarter washout? I know that you look at both fundamental and TA, and would be interested in hearing your view.

    • I agree, TWAV is worth a look. I was watching it for a while, I think maybe I even owned it briefly, I can't quite recall. That was when it was 10 bucks or so.

      Can't remember their balance sheet, but if it is decent they probably are a good value.

      A couple semi eqt stocks I was in recently were EGLS and TGAL. But, I got persuaded by techie talk on the EGLS board that their products have some major obsolescence problems. And, TGAL sells $2 million dollar machines, and is lately doing about $2 mil per quarter in revenue, which means it is a total crapshoot.

      I believe there were some criticisms of TWAV regarding out of date product as well, but of course I'm not going to get a company like MSFT at a TWAV price.

    • Couple more familiar names there. Had DTHK for a while but lost interest, looked at STEL but never dove in.

    • ENWV looks amazingly undervalued too, but I like AIRN far better. ENWV has a high accounts payable which, combined with their debt, reduces their effective book value (liquidation value?) compared to AIRN. ENWV is still a great value play, just not as good as AIRN.

    • take a look at TWAV....

      It looks like your style is similar to mine with ENWV and AIRN...

    • bot_feeder,

      At one time or another I've owned at least half of the stocks in your list! Spooky. A few I've dumped only recently. It looks like OBAS has dropped quite a bit and still has a decent amount of cash and low burn if you back out the one-time stuff. I may nibble at a few shares.

      I sold my Actionpoint before the Captiva merger and have been watching it and considering getting back into it as well. It looks like it may have bottomed out - of course my saying that will only push it down farther.

      I don't really look so much at book value because it usually includes receivables which may or may not be collectible - especailly these days, and also includes inventory which it seems can be written down at any time. I prefer the pure cash (net of liabilities) for the value approach. To me it seems like the safest.

      I bought VITR recently. I've been in and out of Harmonic a couple times. Of the fallen angels it seems like the safest to play for the quick ride up. I may get back into it this week. I'll probably pick up some more ENWV. It was a good trade for me prior to the split. I got out before the split on the defense contract news. After the split I've been buying a little here and there and am averaged at about 1.10 so it's a loser for me right now.

      It seems like the times when I've done best with investing is when I've avoided the really weak stocks and gone more with the higher RS stocks. But these days the market seems to be taking them all down, so I've been scanning the New Low list looking for gems. A few that have come to my attention lately are DTHK STEL MSLV TUNE and NETE. Another that has had some decent insider buying that looks cheap is PWER.

      As fas as COSND, I hear you on the burn. Since they reverse split everything is amplified. Still with a burn of $2 per quarter for the next three quarters it will still have more cash than current mkt cap. I find that attractive in my half-assed stock picking approach. Good luck. Go AREM!

    • microdude:

      Thanks for the candidates. I in fact got a bit of ENWV the other day myself. Lost money on it before, but it is so damn cheap I couldn't resist getting back in.

      Here is my portfolio:

      ABFI $$
      ACTU $ (just bought)
      AEDU $ (don't recommend it, I'd dump if it were more liquid)
      AIRN $$$
      AVCI $
      BETM $
      BRIO $$$
      CACS $
      CHRD $$
      CLRO $$ (just bought after it dropped from 8 bucks to 4)
      CPTV $$ (used to be ACTP, merged with CPTV, now visibility is poor, I have no idea their balance sheet, but I figured I'd hold and take a chance on it)
      CTLM $$
      DGII $$$
      EBSC $
      ENWV $
      EXLN $
      GOT $
      HLIT $
      MANA $$$$
      MAXF $$$$
      MCTR $$
      MRBA $
      MRVC $$
      MVCO $
      NTPA $$
      OBAS $$$
      OPWV $
      PDYN $$
      PRCP $$$
      PVTL $$
      QADI $$$
      RADN $
      STXN $ (just bought)
      TTPA $$$
      VC $$$
      VITR $
      VTEK $$

    • Bottom Feeder,

      A few others that I like right now as far as beaten down but with a good amout of cash relative to share price and burn include ONVI APRS AVGO TVIA COSND ENWV and CRIO. I don't just look at cash on hand, but also liabilities. I like netting all liabilities out of the cash and cash equivilents. That way I get something that seems pretty safe, though by no means bomb-proof - but then again what is in this market? I also look at total cash used in the quarter rather than just net loss. AIRN is right at the top of my list.

      Curious to hear about any that you would like to share.

    • end of sept. Im thinking we should be back around .65cnts to .85 not to far off.


      • 2 Replies to tophatsam
      • About to make a run? I'd say you're about to get a reverse split announcement. The need to be greater than a $1 is great. Just ask the CYTO investors tonight.


      • Australia More Attractive to Foreign Investors, Survey Finds
        By Victoria Batchelor

        Canberra, Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Australia is the most attractive foreign direct investment destination in the world for offshore investors in the farming, mining and forestry industries, a survey by management consultant A.T. Kearney Inc. showed.

        That's up from 11th in the 2001 survey. The annual poll of chief executives and chief financial officers also showed Australia is the 10th most attractive foreign investment destination overall, up from 15th place in last year's survey. China, the most attractive overall, is the only other Asia-Pacific nation in the top 10.

        Foreign investment in Australia in the year ended June 2001 totaled A$814.66 billion ($444 billion), up 13 percent from a year earlier, government figures showed. Australia is the world's biggest exporter of alumina, coal, iron ore, zinc, beef and wool. BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, is based in Australia.

        ``Australia attractiveness to primary industry investors has risen sharply -- much of this could be put down to a shift in investor sentiment for countries with greater security or less political risks,'' Paul Kerin, managing director of A.T. Kearney's Australian and New Zealand operations, said in a statement.

        ``Australia would seem a relatively safe haven for mining and oil investors, for example.''

        The Australian economy grew 3.8 percent in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier as consumer spending surged and because of a residential construction boom.

        U.S. Most Important

        Australia was the sixth most attractive destination for North American investors and fifth for Asian investors, the survey showed. The most attractive industries to investors are primary, which is forestry, farming and mining, wholesale and retail trade and telecommunications.

        The proportion of global investors who had a high likelihood of investing in Australia in the next one-to-three years was unchanged at 12 percent, with 23 percent showing medium interest and 30 percent of those polled showing no interest.

        The poll showed 91 percent of investors surveyed named a recovery in the U.S. as the global development most likely to affect foreign investment decisions.

        A.T. Kearney is a unit of Electronic Data Systems Corp., the world's No. 2 computer-services company.