This is almost unbelievable. Low volume day in and day out while going from $24 to $15.66 in barely more than a month. We are now more than 65% down from the peak of $45. If your holding onto your losses, good luck fighting the emotional attachment.
There has GOT to be some support at $15... or is there?
Poor proles. What now, brown cows? Do you chompers have the stomachs for 19 PLUS? Go on, get out now, while the betting's bad. Bile green pastures await your non-compliance. Only one thing, though. When GIVN hits 30, are you still aboard? How about 40 before New Year's Eve? The Jews have smashed HIZ Bellows, not Saul,though. Bloomie would agree. Every American should should serve as a "line cook" in the Middle East cauldron. Ah but we don't have the stomach for it. That's why we got in there. To sell our brand of American know-how. All you have to do is read Henry James "The Ambassadors" to know what we're all about. Strether goes to Europe to find himself and bring back the retrograde son of a New England matriarch whose company makes chamberpots. But the beauty of the novel lies in James's reluctance to ever mention the manufactured item. $64,000 question? Is Israel in Lebanon like France was in Algeria? Only Camus would know.
New here, researching this stock. Want to make a few points on issues raised. Have seen a few comments about inability to biopsy or do interventions. 1. Only a few patients need interventions or biopsies, so the Pillcam would be a screening tool in those patients; much cheaper. 2. Pillcam can go places conventional endoscopy cannot. Lower in the small intestine for instance. 3. Not requiring anaesthesia is no small deal. Adds to expense, patient inconvenience, complications etc.
Disadvantages: In addition to already noted, pillcam generaates a huge volume of images that are tedious for the gastroenterologist to review. In adddition a permanent record is created. If the GI misses a lesion while reviewing the images, or misinterpretes, a plaintiff's attorney has solid evidence that can be used against the doctor. In raditional endoscopy, images are created only of what the gastroenterologist deems significant.
Hate to state this but in medicine now the three most important factors that determine acceptance are:
Hi, Thanks. I plotted GIVN chart for 3 months against Morgan Stanley Emerging Market Fund(MSF).Please do it.
MSF and GIVN moved together(overlapped) from March 16 to May 6-8th;then both start falling.MSF is down 12% whereas GIVN is down 32%.
Biggest drops are after GIVN webcast on May 9th,2006 and then on May 22nd,2006.
Over 8% drop on May 22nd,2006 did not happen with MSF--but did with GIVN.
Over the years,I have learnt that over 5% drop or rise in a Stock price Chart is due to a SIGNIFICANT NEWS.
Even PBS/Wall Street Journal reports big drops like that in their news and SEC computer checks for these significant moves.
Also you have a good point about a patent being licensed by more than one as a good sign.But Research in Motion-Blackberry resisted and wasted their money while Nokia licensed NPT patent before introducing their new product.Now VISTO which won a patent lawsuit against Seven Networks for 3.6 mil.$ is suing RIMM-Blackberry and Blackberry CEO says that he will fight the case.(wall Street Journal May 4th,2006 page B4).
RIM CEO Balsillie filed its case asking the court to declare three of Visto patents as INVALID.
That is why many writers have called Balsillie as ARROGANT CEO whose company lost 30% of its marketcap--worth billions because they tried to avoid paying to NPT.Finally they paid 50 mil.$ fine and back patent license fees--total amounting to 612.5 mil.$in March 2006 as Judge had put an INJUCTION--to stop RIM selling Blackberry in USA.Balsillie thought that NPT is small and inventor is dead.They are doing the same against VISTO--a small company.
I have sensed arrogance in GIVN 20F SEC report filed on April 5th,2006 on Patents and Competition.
THANKS FOR YOUR INSIGHTS and views.
Do you have any thoughts/projections on their EPS for 2nd qtr. and 3rd Qtr.2006?
high low you spend way too much time thinking about patents. If anyone is investing in Given assuming that the patents will keep out Olympus and all other competitors from the US market, they are being foolish.
Patents are never simple and are almost never decided by the USPTO -- IMHO there are only 2 ways to have any confidence in a company's patents: a ruling by a court that holds up under appeal or a company that is able to get multiple other companies to pay royalties for their intellectual property counts too -- just one company suggests they were stupid but royalties from multiple companies suggests the IP is solid.
Unless I am mistaken, Given has not had its IP tested in a court nor is anyone paying them royalties -- one should assume the patents will be invalidated or that competitors will be found not to infringe until then. its a much safer assumption.
That doesn't mean Given's situation is hopeless. Still trying to determine their situation -- you have chosen to ignore my questions about whether a pill cam is a disruptive technology -- especially towards Olympus the current leader.
Marketing, distribution, product quality, etc., these things matter far more than patents when it comes to competition and success.
As far as the drop in the stock on that day in May -- who knows not all large institutional investors are fast moving day trading hedge funds. some are lumbering giant mutual funds or institutional managers that take time to digest news, due some dd and then act.
same time Given was breaking down emerging markets (of which Israel is considered one by MSCI) were getting killed --when combined with company specific problems, Given ends up being the stock people dump to reduce exposure or meet redemptions, etc.
often very difficult to match daily movements with news items -- to me your theory looks like data mining.
I'm baffled with this stock. Would you explain a little more about what you said about the stock going from 40s to current level and in small volumes....what do you think is driving this? Is it because of short sellers? What do you think are the problems thats pressureing the stock? Your insight is mostly appreciated. Thnx
There will be support level--When and at what level--depends on Homi Shamir.Needham conference talk was repeat--No acknowledgement of BIG MACK TRUCK (Olympus) behind them.I think --CFO did not convince anyone to BUY the stock or change the RATINGS.
Let us take a look at two points of Homi--FOCUS,Excecution.
Execution: GIVN has not gotten approval for 3 years in Japan-it is a big opportunity--Is Homi going to get faster approval for Japan and for Esphogus in USA(during 2nd half of 2006)--that could be a trigger point for stock.
Focus:Turnaround in Sales--we will have to wait for 3 months to really know.
Patent lawsuits:They take time--But rereading USPTO arguments(several pages) and GIVN defense(several pages)--http://tinyurl.com/ksu2s--I felt that GIVN lost their case.HAVE YOU and others gone thru the material from USPTO and Given Imaging?Please do read at the above website provided by GIVN.Let me know your views.
I think this patent issue has moved the stock from 20 to 15.70--2nd qtr.earnings moved it from 24 to 20$.
Approval in Japan is likely to help Olympus also.So yes,Stock could go up with FDA(US & Japan) approvals and sales turnaround but Patent issues are a deadweight with Olympus strengthening its position.Given's appeal is not going to help--they had a chance to appeal in 2005 to USPTO and they did that but USPTO still rejected claims 1,2,3 and 11.
I came in at 36.Still holding, hope against hope.What are you going to do? I'll tell you what I'm going to do. Nothing. Sit tight. Not tight enough for any hemorrhoids, please; even though GIVN is still hemorrhaging.It's a bloody mess, that's what it is. Of course, I'm a born masochist. Why? Because I've been a loyal Cub rooter since 1939. Now if only Kerry Woods and Mark Pryor can back on track ... ? Is there light at the end of the tunnel for GIVEN or is that another train coming through?