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Sun Communities Inc. Message Board

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  • garfroggy garfroggy Jan 16, 2008 11:07 AM Flag

    SUI at crazy valuation

    what refianncing?

    "The Company's annual debt maturities range from $14 million to $30 million over the next three years."
    from recent press release.

    also credit lines are based on libor. last looked libor rates have trended down big vs last year.
    Libor rate 4.41% Today vs last year 5.32%. This is a fall of 0.91% or 17% lower than last year.
    Uninformed short in this one.
    shorts better plan their exit strategy. low float and new institutional holders are not selling after buying down here.good luck shorties. it may just rise as fast as it fell.
    the segment that normally buy or lease mfg houses will be coming back to papa here. gone are the days of buying a regular house with a pulse lending.

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    • In a true credit crunch there will either be no credit renewals or at much higher rates at some point. Hopefully fed easing will do the exact opposite.That is the scenario I am investing in obviously. Refinancing fears whter rationale or not have been a major reason the sector has been hit. I own reits as new investments and don't buy into it but a lot of scared longs have.

      I think the bear's other rationale that a recession will cause vacancies is something SUI is uniquely able to resist.

      On the other hand I am not accepting management's figures chapter and verse; you must obviously allow some room for error in their assumptions. I am hopeful they are right, but my point is even if they are off some this is undervalued. When I was looking at this I did not find a single analyst who put a target on this in the teens even the unfavorable one's. If there are such valuations I have not seen them.

      I have not owned this long enough to know whether the massive selloff was due to shorts or disgusted shareholders-maybe both. It does appear to me it has been overdone and that some improvements in management's operations are taking place.I feel the fairly large short posistion will someday mostly cover because of the dividends and is a source of future share demand. Someone is buying today.RRW

      • 1 Reply to wilsonrusty2
      • "In a true credit crunch there will either be no credit renewals.."
        lol! Where have you been?
        "In a true credit crunch." What the heck do you think we have gone through the last several months as the FED is the lender of last resort to these over leveraged banks who borrow with trash collateral at the disocunt window
        It does not get much worse than this situation.

        "I think the bear's other rationale that a recession will cause vacancies is something SUI is uniquely able to resist."

        ANOTHER SHORTS DREAM.
        THEY SAID LAST CONFERENCE CALL THAT RENTAL APPLICATIONS WERE UP 50% FROM LAST YEAR. HUGE DEMAND. Vacancies should hold quite quite well. People have to live somewhere and this is one of the cheapest forms of housing out there.
        Mfg housing is known to be recession proof. of course the shorties will try to fudge around this.

        "On the other hand I am not accepting management's figures chapter and verse; you must obviously allow some room for error in their assumptions."

        More short hogwash.
        They are raising park lots at 3%. Is that hard to understand?
        Now if they get a wave of new homebuyers which cannot be ruled out due to the complete ending of fake loans for regular houses things should pick up. This company should hire a few mfg homes sales people who know how to sell and fire some deadbeat in corporate to pay for it.

        FFO at $2.79 is not a long stretch at all.
        Maybe the shorties should go over to EQR that trades at 14 times ffo not the 6 time here.

    • Short interest is not the main culprit. Go here:
      http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/MasterDataEntry.asp?page=ShortInterest
      and type in SUI and you will see the historical short interest. The stock was at $29 on Nov 1. Since Nov maybe 7.5 mm shares have traded and short interest went up a little then down more. Looks to me like a large institution (s) wanted out. If shorts cover there will be a surge, unless they buy from an inst that wants out!

      All mgmts have less of a crystal ball than shareholders would like to believe, but their assumptions do not look heroic. Unless mgmt is failing to disclose something they know (and do not underestimate the ability of any mgmt to overlook inconvenient facts), this appears undervalued.

      • 1 Reply to maverick7572000
      • "All mgmts have less of a crystal ball than shareholders would like to believe, but their assumptions do not look heroic.."

        your right much of the asumption is based on rising lot rents of like 3%.

        So yes mgt probably needs to do more to earn their high priced paychecks. They need to raise the bar on site leases rental sales /leases and new homes sales. They have done little if anything to stem the short from shorting this stock with absolute impunity.
        Last looked short interest was over 10% and institutions own 75% with insiders owning 11%. Not much float out there shorties.
        It can rise as fast as it fell imo. all on the back of these greedy shorties over staying their stay.

 
SUI
44.19+0.72(+1.66%)Apr 15 4:02 PMEDT

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