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Sun Communities Inc. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Apr 7, 2011 9:37 AM Flag

    Ex divi dump is on

    I'd wait for the sellers to finish then jump on the turn up in price.

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    • Looks to me like the ex-divi dump finished this afternoon.

      Back to the sandlot peanut gallery though.

      Plenty of room, imo, to pick up a substantial position at under 36 (even 7% yield) in 100, 200 and 300 share lots, as long as you don't do it too fast.

      Before earnings and CC on 4/28, imo, back to mid 36s. CC could be key. A contract to buy ain't as good as a closed deal.

      As with dividend, imo, no surprises with 1Q earnings. Close in May on new properties won't make much of an impact on 2Q, but once closed with details (like interest rate on assumed debt) at CC, market will anticipate increase in affo. Target for sellers, obviously, is more than 41 conversion price.

      2.52 ( it won't increase per Shiffman) on 41 = 6.146% yield.
      Sellers get between 5 and 6% (probably a formula) on op units, so I expect they will convert when price over 41 and they are willing to bite the tax bullet. Depends on Washington, but I suspect sellers are eyeballing 2012 as maybe last chance at 15% long gain rate.

      I'm thinking 41 in a year from new property closing. That's when "show me" crowd sees increased affo and lower leverage ratio on a closed deal.

      Guts & bucks now can be pretty for the patient yield investor, all imo, whose at position limit sleeping easily over this company.

 
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