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Sun Communities Inc. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Feb 21, 2013 11:56 AM Flag

    CC notes and comments

    Very little at CC which is not in press release and supplemental info.
    Usual question about dividend and usual non-answer. IMO, no increase this year as focus still on reducing leverage ratios.

    Shiffman danced around specific question on going-in cap rates on recent acquisitions and did not answer question, I suspect because they are too low......he says accretive at acquisition on a debt neutral basis and they grow noi with improvements, efficiencies and better management. While I have to do some calculations over the past few years, on a per share basis, I'm beginning to doubt that proposition. Yeah, ffo and fad has increased but so has the number of shares. I'm going to do some work on this question for next CC.

    Earnings & CC....the surprises either way. Just a giant blob of house lots throwing off ultra reliable but unspectacular cash flow. It's just the annuity part of my portfolio with no worries about a crash and no hopes for a bonanza. Have no thoughts of selling and no interest in buying more (except to flip lemming knee-jerks) because I'm at position limit with my core holdings. I'll probably die holding this unless something fundamental changes about the industry or SUI does something very stupid, like buying a business it knows nothing about.

    Back to sleep until the next news.

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    • Thanks. Will dig in later in the week.

      True, shares have increased, but the company outlook for FFO as released earlier is per share and projects a nice increase. That said, my concern was that they are getting bigger because they can. I was pleased to see the forecast released earlier, but my concern still is there - and it sounds like you are having that concern as well.

    • Dar,
      You wrote, "While I have to do some calculations over the past few years, on a per share basis, I'm beginning to doubt that proposition. Yeah, ffo and fad has increased but so has the number of shares."
      Od course the acquisitions have been accretive on a per dshare basis, as per share FFO has increased on a per share basis. The new shares that have been sold are already factored into this higher FFO per share, therefore, SUI's acquisitions have been accretive of a per share basis. Where SUI may be slightly off is to state that these have been detb neutral, as it is my belief that debt has actually crept up a bit--not much though--as a direct result of these acquisitions.
      Overall I rate Shiffman and SUI management an A+ for per share accretion due to acquisitions, but the main problem is that this company carries A LOT of debt, and this high debt load over time could become a serious detriment if interest rates rise considerably and SUI must--over time--roll maturing debt at significantly higher rates. FFO is dwarfed by the size of the debt. If interest rates rise considerably, the cost of that interest on the debt pile will eat into FFO and thus FFO per share. Therein lies the risk in SUI.


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