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Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) Message Board

  • the_boston_flash the_boston_flash May 28, 2005 2:20 AM Flag

    Cobasis Battery Order Probability: 1

    Due to the fact that almost every auto maker in the world still has plenty of 2005 models to unload before introduction of the 2006 line-up it is unlikely that the Auto 'Christmas Season' will start much before the end of the Summer.

    This means that announcement before that time of definitive Hybrid Models either directly or via a high profile battery order which would outline details of the specific application is unlikely before the end of the Summer.

    Toyota and Honda having experienced the impact of their Hybrid Introductions of the general market for their cars and more specifically on the models which they chose to convert or offer Hybrid as an option have already developed models which take into consideration these revenue streams with plans and financial strategies in place to smooth any potential disruption of sales of standard models, using discounts, price reductions, price freezes. or other means to incorporate and compensate for any bumps or bruises in the overall picture from this planned obsolescence.

    In other words, the American Market has learned that Horses are no longer needed to pull the new buggies and that the new fuels are cheaper and far less cleanup intensive than straw, corn, hay and apples. For this reason they'll hang on to the old buggy or hold off buying a new one until Henry Ford get his new mass production system into higher gear.

    That is not to say that an accumulation of shares in the company that will make the new crank ignition systems has not begun, in anticipation of no further great delay in the start-up of the new assembly lines.

    The disruptive nature of this new transportation system can be plainly seen in the volatility of ENER which is slated to be a key player at the Crank Ignition end of this high volume new product with their NiMH HEV Battery Systems.

    In the mean time, however, the big manufacturers such as GM or even Ford don't want to dangle blazing new products in front of prospective customers for all the present production vehicles still on dealer lots.

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    • [As an aside, the new Lexus Hybrid gets 27MPG, Highway, vs. 24 MPG, Highway, with the big improvement in city driving. That's 3 Miles per Gallon More Folks, no more and probably less than GM can squeeze out of a Cadillac with staggered pistons, where 4 shut down for highway cruising. If Toyota is so smart and so advanced and so Green, why did they not include the Staggering of Pistons along with the Battery System for Highway Cruising, with the other pistons kicking in only for fast acceleration or steep hill climbing ? For all practical purposes, a Cadillac could run in the city on TWO Cylinders, Cruise with FOUR, and run the rest on an 'as needed' basis. STICK THAT IN YOUR CADILAC HYBRID AND SEE HOW LEXUS COMPARES !! Or stick that in your Lexus. Toyota, and stop being a partial GM.]

      The point of all this is that you can expect an accumulation through the summer of ENER in a range averaged from all the hills and valleys in the past 6 months which runs at present from very strong Support in the 20 area to high resistance at about 22.

      Breaks through Support will decline to no more than about 19, and breaks through resistance at the top of the full average range will get up to no more than about 24.

      This means that you should be able to trade all Summer between about 20 and 22, with an end game on the short side at any break below 20 (buying area), or a sell on the long side at about 22, with a possible roll through 23 up to as high as 24.50 for the brave of heart.

      News of a definite order from Cobasys during this period will bring spike dressed as a strong new uptrend, but those here with experience will know that it is a bulge that will return to the 50 or 200 (perhaps 100) day moving average going forward, until the cars for which the batteries were intended have actually been introduced and public acceptance is evaluated.

      As many here might have seen, I can teach but I can't do, but as mentioned, I have this new "Say I did but don't do it Strategy" to work with, and if it works it doesn't matter from what level I start, be it 30 lousy contracts in June, or 10 lousy contracts in September.

      I know you'll take this evaluation for what it is worth, as surely as I know that I have been called a moron and a mentally challenged technician with such as my crazy ideas for very rapid home recharge of EV's or Plug-ins. It never ceases to amaze me however, how well these EXACT SAME IDEAS are commended with multiple recommendations for then posters because they somehow found a way to say the same thing in their own generally accepted pompous words and self-important phrases.

      A person does not have to know how to process, anneal. hammer and stamp out copper components to plug a digital computer with a high speed internet connection into a household outlet.

      Jay might say that you don't need a Ph.D. with a Post Doctorate in Advanced Biology to pour a bottle of Home Brew microbes into an oily hole in the ground. It's all in the Hops.

      • 1 Reply to the_boston_flash
      • >>The point of all this is that you can expect an accumulation through the summer of ENER in a range averaged from all the hills and valleys in the past 6 months which runs at present from very strong Support in the 20 area to high resistance at about 22.<<

        I think it has much more to do with the perception than the reality. While auto makers are going to be quiet about 'new models' until lots start to clear, plant shutdowns and production cuts are going to be the right time start the massive retooling effort required to bring hybrids into production. Remember that even a dumb chief executive knows when you have a problem you have to act like you have a solution even if you don't. It help with the eventual severance package if you can say 'I tried.'. We'll have plenty of news from our spies at the Cobasys plant that something is up even if we get the same PR (NOT) we got from Azure Dynamics.

        That said, the fact that ECD/ENER is a faith based (as opposed to an economically or earnings) based investment vehicle it is going to ride occasionally with the whipsaws that will play havoc with equity markets this summer beginning Friday with the employment report and continuing with gasoline shortages, Yuan revaluation and the resulting inflation (whether it is reported/captured by the government statistics or NOT!). So while I agree we have a trading range ahead of us I would suggest that it is quite a bit wider with runs approaching $30 as focus turns to Alternative Energy stories including ours, 'ECD the Saga', 'The Stan that Stuns!' or my favorite 'As the Hydrogen Loop Turns'

        Should anything ACTUALLY HAPPEN we could easily benefit from the fact that by hook or crook, smoke and mirrors we have actually reported a profit! Ignore that man in the lab, his Class A shares expire in September (hopefully). Stay tuned to 'The Motley Fool Turns' as ECD goes from the successor to Microsoft (with ongoing concerns reservations in the filings) and then the shaky financial risk (with $100 million in the bank) and next morphs into Stan's gift to the World. The scary part is that it probably will end up being a gift!

 
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