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  • ecd_anonymous ecd_anonymous May 28, 2005 9:39 AM Flag

    Cobasis Battery Order Probability: 1

    >>The point of all this is that you can expect an accumulation through the summer of ENER in a range averaged from all the hills and valleys in the past 6 months which runs at present from very strong Support in the 20 area to high resistance at about 22.<<

    I think it has much more to do with the perception than the reality. While auto makers are going to be quiet about 'new models' until lots start to clear, plant shutdowns and production cuts are going to be the right time start the massive retooling effort required to bring hybrids into production. Remember that even a dumb chief executive knows when you have a problem you have to act like you have a solution even if you don't. It help with the eventual severance package if you can say 'I tried.'. We'll have plenty of news from our spies at the Cobasys plant that something is up even if we get the same PR (NOT) we got from Azure Dynamics.

    That said, the fact that ECD/ENER is a faith based (as opposed to an economically or earnings) based investment vehicle it is going to ride occasionally with the whipsaws that will play havoc with equity markets this summer beginning Friday with the employment report and continuing with gasoline shortages, Yuan revaluation and the resulting inflation (whether it is reported/captured by the government statistics or NOT!). So while I agree we have a trading range ahead of us I would suggest that it is quite a bit wider with runs approaching $30 as focus turns to Alternative Energy stories including ours, 'ECD the Saga', 'The Stan that Stuns!' or my favorite 'As the Hydrogen Loop Turns'

    Should anything ACTUALLY HAPPEN we could easily benefit from the fact that by hook or crook, smoke and mirrors we have actually reported a profit! Ignore that man in the lab, his Class A shares expire in September (hopefully). Stay tuned to 'The Motley Fool Turns' as ECD goes from the successor to Microsoft (with ongoing concerns reservations in the filings) and then the shaky financial risk (with $100 million in the bank) and next morphs into Stan's gift to the World. The scary part is that it probably will end up being a gift!

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    • >> So while I agree we have a trading range ahead of us I would suggest that it is quite a bit wider with runs approaching $30 as focus turns to Alternative Energy stories including ours, 'ECD the Saga', 'The Stan that Stuns!' or my favourite 'As the Hydrogen Loop Turns' <<

      I started a "Saga" on the ENER Board. Several Episodes are on file. I let it slide because after previous experience with the writing of very long sagas I realized that I had laid out all the main plot features in almost no time at all (I caught the 16 Gig clip chips way ahead of the crowd), and that with good editing I could catch up at any time.

      In many ways it's a lot easier to make excuses for One Trick Ponies, than for 5-Ring Circuses with Lions, Tigers, numerous Clowns and a ring leader with Elephant tis of the Brain.

      Anyway, if you will go back to my original proposition and study the chart with the eye of a trained Economist, which is trained to recognise and support only that which is seen from the perspective of the Individual Position in a Personal Plane of existence -- a kind of 'Quantum Stasis' -- you will see that if you constrained your Option Plays to Purchases as the price hit the 20 line and sales when the price hit the 22 line with a Strict 3-month Time Premium Strategy: You would be way ahead of the "here she blows" thinking which inspires Option Plays at any time during the middle of a month with a 20-day window.

      Also keep in mind that the best time to but is in the last two weeks of almost any month, and the best time to sell is in a morning of the first week or so of the Beginning of any month.

      You may miss some BIG moves, but, in the end, if you follow my program with consistency you will wind up way ahead of trying to outguess Market Makers and other Professionals who have been trained since birth to suck the blood from the bodies of small investors in ways that keep them alive long enough to still have value as sucker bait.

      Don�t get mad. Be more Patient and Get even.