"Integrated building and construction products such as PV enabled roofing and window materials are projected to be the largest market opportunity measuring $800 million ($US) in 2011 with large project and consumer electronic products the second and third largest market opportunities. On the materials front, amorphous silicon, the best established of the various thin-film PV materials, will represent an $800 million ($US) opportunity..."
$800M in thin film sales by 2011 (let's just say at $2/kW) would mean 400MW of film per year. Unisolar has stated plans for "at least 300MW by 2010." (And that's presumably without any significant bump in film efficiency from 25MW moving towards the mythical? 100MW).
Does anyone really think that Unisolar will be producing 75% to 100% of that demand? No Honda? No BP? None of the other big guys?
I'm sure Unisolar would love to "have it all" but, realistically, I expect they'd be happy with "a goodly share."
I think the thin film manufacturers out there, as a group, see a MUCH bigger potential than $800M by 2011.
I sort of see your point, but... isn't your division off by three orders of magnitude, Joe?
Also, companies like Honda are going with CIGS, so it's probably not included in the $800 million figure for amorphous thin film. If you click on the link in the original post, you'll see a higher projected $2.3 Billion market if you include CIS/CIGS and other thin film PV cells as well.
And no, I don't think Unisolar will have a monopoly on thin film any time soon. (Unfortunately.)
But hey, I'm with you on the last statement about thin film makers a group having a much bigger potential. So at least agree on something. Maybe.