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Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) Message Board

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  • boonedoggle73 boonedoggle73 May 10, 2008 12:16 PM Flag

    Citi Sees Solar Cell Glut In 2009/Shakeout Coming

    Isn't the Citi representative overlooking the niche ENER has carved out for itself in large commercial roofs that require low weight solar applications as well as the ongoing drive to lower costs of production and the seemingly relentless increase in oil prices which another analyst predicted yesterday could reach $200/ bbl. by the end of this year?

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    • boondoggle,

      << Isn't the Citi representative overlooking the niche ENER has carved out for itself in large commercial roofs that require low weight solar applications >>

      It seems that relatively few analysts recognize that BIPV is a different market that requires different products. I think Morelli in every CC has tried to highlight the BIPV market and products ENER is focused on.

      Eventually the message will sink in... but it is surprising to me that cost/watt gets so much attention and other important product characteristics are basically ignored. Cost is important... but it's not all important.

      Regards,
      Snoz

      • 2 Replies to justsnoz
      • "Eventually the message will sink in... but it is surprising to me that cost/watt gets so much attention and other important product characteristics are basically ignored. Cost is important... but it's not all important." - justsnoz.

        Eventually your right, the message will sink in, however, I suspect Citi is missing the paradigm shift as well.

        With oil finally going up to $125/bbl and maybe to $200/bbl and with production costs coming down at ENER, FSLR, etc.. the parity point will be reached sooner than most bean counters expect.

        These bean counters look to the past and try to project the future, with the paradigm shift that is currently under way, looking to the past is a poor indicator as one's guide to what is coming.

        Solar and wind will be HUGE!! When the democrats take back the white house alternative energy tax credits will be passed in a heart beat and oil subsidies will be gone.

        The market for alternative energy is now driven by forces that are in play for decades to come, global warming and scarcer sequestered hydrocarbons, oil and gas. I tend to think that such using such hydrocarbons will eventually be outlawed, long before they run out, due to their impact on climate change.

        Thermal solar plants will be bult on a huge scale in the SW USA in the years to come. Wind farms will be built from Texas to the canadian border and along the coasts. Distributed solar from BIPV to 2-3 MW city based solar plants will be built everywhere.

        Bankers don't pick up on paradigm shifts very quickly, neither do most people. People are, by nature, creatures of habit and tradition, and tend to think wihtin the borders fo the current paradigm. Our world is changing and it is forcing change in how we deal with it. It will cahnge as much in the next 20 years as it did in the first 50 of the 20th century. Those that cannot anticipate the change will be less able to benefit from it personally.

        Those of us that have invested in alternative energy have anticipated the change that is now occuring with vigor. The alternative market will be in a solid growth mode for many years now, some faster than others but consistently growing. I doubt tax credits for alternative energy are really needed to drive us forward but then again they can't hurt.

        What all these Citi bankers and many others don't understand is the alternative energy market IS THE FUTURE. IT WILL NO LONGER BE HEALTHY FOR A COUPLE OF YEARS THE COOL OFF. IT WILL BE EITHER HOT OR WHITE HOT FOR DECADES TO COME!!!

        Those that understand this will hold their investments in companies like ENER for decades and never sell completely so long as management runs a sound business plan. Stock splits as time progresses will offer many opportunities to cash out pieces of the pie here and there.

        A $100,000 investment in ENER today could, in ten years, easily be worth 3-5 million due to the solar component alone, in 20 years it could easily be worth 10's of millions. Double that for PRAM in ten years. Beyond that another tech could displace PRAM, I think BIPV distributed solar is here to stay.

        Those that bought Standard Oil stock in the early 1900's made fortunes and many still hold fortunes today.

        Perspective is key. Citi analysts don't get it yet.

      • I also think they are overlooking that with with a new President . the alternative energy sector will get a big boost .. .. as will the economy as a whole .. confidence is a great thing ..and right no one has confidence in this administration. IMHO