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Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) Message Board

  • jimmygoduh jimmygoduh Jun 12, 2008 7:19 PM Flag

    3% dilution for 233% expansion. I like that!

    3% for 233% expansion.

    Parteeeeeeee!

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    • "Ironically, stand-mounted PV would integrate better with a green roof than would roll material.'


      Do you understand the product at all?

    • << besides, wind is cheaper than all of the above, BIPV or not. >>

      Except that it's totally unsuited for urban areas, marginal in far-suburban areas, whereas PV is well suited for those applications.

    • <<more BIPV competition - cant see anyone with any substance emerging, certainly some smoke though>>

      The long term and growing backlog ank take or pay seems to support this. It is the markets opinions that count more than ours.

    • "then there is indeed room for competition in BIPV if module producers can simply reduce their price by 20%." says bumble.

      Sure, plenty of room for competition, tehy can reduce their prices by 20% and THERE GOES THEIR NET PROFIT.

      Sure, the competition can work for free!!! Of course, why didn't the rest of us think of that! Thanks Bumble for making that clear.

      Now all you have to do is sell that to the stockholders of FSLR, etc..

    • >>BIPV no

      If the CC statements were accurate that Unisolar solar BIPV only saves 20% on installation costs, then there is indeed room for competition in BIPV if module producers can simply reduce their price by 20%.

      FSLR has indicated that this is more than possible, while their production ramp costs are considerably less than ENER's which means they require less dilution and/or less amortization expense for building out capacity - which relieves their end product pricing further.

      besides, wind is cheaper than all of the above, BIPV or not.

    • i think your well short of the mark on a few points

      increasing competitive pressures- for ground mount yes, BIPV no

      more BIPV competition - cant see anyone with any substance emerging, certainly some smoke though

      they need to get the build out done to co-incide with market demand, imo they are still way behind on that front

      consider the market size once grid parity is reached
      consider the revnues from pcm

    • keeping in mind that many of us "old regulars" waited so long for solar to pan out, that we are now dropping like flies (including Stan's wife), or perhaps suffering so many bed sores that we cannot keep up the posts the way we used to...

      LOL

      The competitive pressures you mention are basically the same thing as my concern about the dilution indicating that management considers its own stock price as overvalued. So they are rushing in to dilute before it goes down due to modest earnings results compared to exciting new competitors. Morelli is overcompensated, therefore I expect him to act selfishly and not in the best interest of shareholders to secure his position and increase his compensation by expanding his empire even if it isn't the right time to be doing the expansion because he hasn't optimized key cost issues yet. If he has, then you're even more right - new competition such as flexible CIGS which can be ramped to 1GW for half as much cap-ex will crush ENER.


      PS if i am dickensonioan u seem to be also - we could have shortened our names by picking meaningless strings of letters I suppose.

    • It takes time to raise money when people cannot see the sales because the costs to ramp are too high. So perhaps this is the time. But if this is the time, then it means that they are basically done with their current expansion plans and shifting focus to new expansion.

      This is NOT what Morelli told us at the CC. Therefore I smell a rat. Demi: I don't doubt you smell a rat, because of the close proximity to yourself. This is precisely what Morelli told us at the CC. You were carpeing in the previous post that Morelli was financing when the stock was high? It is high compared to not long ago and I am glad for that because it does dillute the dillution. It also happens to be the best time to go forward with plans to increase capacity at Unisolar. And there is nothing that says that a lot of the added capacity will not come from improved effciency AND from a faster throughput. You have moaned about Morelli from day one and he has proven you to be wrong.

    • bumblebugaboo: I might start calling you Mr. Dickens since I usually can't see your entire Dickensonian name when I reply.

      I notice that a lot of the old regulars are not posting today. That's pretty surprising given this news. (Exceptions such as justsnoz, etc. noted.) I wonder how many are still considering the possibilities without posting opinions.

      I see another issue related to timing, that is dramatically increasing competitive pressures. New polysilicon supplies are beginning to come online, signs of BIPV competition are surfacing, and the big boys are getting into the solar game - big boys other than those that have been there for years, like BP, Sharp, etc.

      Unisolar needs to get the build out done ASAP in order to be more than a 5-year wonder. (That sounds a bit more cynical than I actually am, but it makes the point.)

      In my mind, one thing that must happen as quickly as possible is a move to the residential market, perfectly reasonable with durable metal standing seam roofing. I think BIPV as applied to large area flat roofs may have limited utility as water concerns (runoff primarily) cause a shift toward green roof integration. Ironically, stand-mounted PV would integrate better with a green roof than would roll material.

      Too many cheerleaders, too many naysayers. Too bad none of us can see the future.

    • >>They clearly are capacity constrained

      Ray used to tell me emphatically that this was not so. But I agree with you. I always have believed ENER is capacity constrained, and I believe it will be BECAUSE the cap-ex is inferior.

      It takes time to raise money when people cannot see the sales because the costs to ramp are too high. So perhaps this is the time. But if this is the time, then it means that they are basically done with their current expansion plans and shifting focus to new expansion.

      This is NOT what Morelli told us at the CC. Therefore I smell a rat.

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