I know all about options. Played them for years. Had a quint last year, trade of a lifetime. For it to get to $1.00 you would have to be a $34.00 by this time next week maybe a little less. $30.00 maybe, but $34.00? Don't get me wrong I hope you are right, it is just not a bet I would make. June 35's maybe, but 7 points out of the money with less than 4 weeks to go to expiration on a $27.00 stock? Too daring for my blood.
Earnings have been talked down pretty low so I think they will beat. What is key is guidence with an emphasis on financing. I am seeing evidence all over that financing is loosining up for people and companies with good credit. If your credit is borderline or you companies prospects are cloudy you are not going to get financing. Guess what, that is the way it should be! Part of the problem we have gotten into is that people and institutions that did not deserve financing got it. Now bankers are actually looking at risk. What is the world coming to?
In this environment I think they will find solar projects to be good risks, especially if Uncle Sam is guaranteeing them. Some of the other problems like oversupply and Chinese competition are not serious long term impediments.
Where is the stock going to be after earnings? Baring a big surprise one way or the other I think a little higher then right now. $27-28. It will be May before we see the 30's again.
Why?, are there any facts to support this?. There has been more than enough facts to support a decline in business. Declining oil prices, declining margins, china getting in on the act, suppling the market with low cost material and labor, over supply of panals, hard to get financing if you can get it, and the list goes on. So you can support a 30% increase in share price because of what?. Just curious.