SPWRA is a M&A bait trading at $1.27B, nearly 0.5X 2010 rev ($2.25B) with over 4GWac in the pipeline, very low system cost, high GM w/ Oasys module, > 23% Gen 3 Cel technology.
Slide 6 displays chart:
Developer Model: Maximize Gross Profit / Watt Gross Profit by Value Chain Step v. Vertical Integration ($/W)
Slide 9 articulates:
More kWh/ft2= Better Customer NPV
"Price is very important, but the installed price is also important. An inexpensive panel with a high installation price isn’t necessarily a bargain." -Mark Nelson, Director of Generation and Strategy,Southern California Edison, 3/10/10, wsj.com
SunPower’shigh efficiency solar panel price premium reflects higher kWh/ft2and NPV from constrained roofs or land areas (e.g., U.S., Japan, Italy, Germany).
Slide 10 conveys:
Key Cost Reduction Initiatives Increased conversion efficiency –2010 panel cost reduction in-line with ASP assumptions –Gen 3 cell technology, minimum 23% conversion efficiency Supply-chain improvements –Improving materials cost >10% in 2010 –Regional modcoreduces logistics costs and working capital Reduce Capex, increased OEE –R+D driven CapExand ROIC improvement –Improving line productivity by 15% in 2010
Slide 11 says:
Oasis 25% Balance-of-System Savings by Category
Chinese, Japanese, Korean, European cos would likely acquire SPWRA for dirt cheap. I expect this stock to trade north of $20 soon.