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SunPower Corporation Message Board

  • get_imaginary get_imaginary Apr 20, 2011 10:58 AM Flag

    Good news, bad news day

    Italy cap news is in and worse than I'd expected. SPWRA has significant exposure to Italy. Good news is also in: We Won in California!!!! Mega project backed by DOE loan is a go.

    Let's see how the market reacts. If price sinks below support (which is roughly at 15), the market is missing the CA news, which I think is the more meaningful. SPWRA is already looking beyond Italy. Will the market do the same?

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    • Typo...should be "relaxation of low entropy"

    • LOL. You're starting from a conclusion then looking for evidence tot support it. Try letting the evidence unfold and look at it objectively. To get a better idea of what constitutes typical intervals of non-correlation between the two stocks, look also at yahoo's five-day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SPWRA&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=jaso

      Try to understand the math too. Correlation is a low entropy state, which means it's highly unlikely to occur by chance. Intervals of non correlation are a relaxation of high entropy and are therefore highly likely. Keep in mind that you need to weight their importance accordingly.

    • We have an anomaly today. JASO up 1%, SPWRA down .5%, now lagging every solar in the sector including TSL. Volume sleepy, will be lucky to get to recent average of about 2.5 mil.

    • The Italian 'draft' policy had indicated grandfathering of in-process projects under the current FIT. That's great news for SunPower as they already had over 55MW ac (of the 130) well into construction (per their disclosures).

      E.ON (EPC) 3MW Started Q4, Complete Q2
      Ention (EPC) 9MW Started Q4, Complete early Q3
      Galatina 9MW Started Q4, Complete Q1, Sold Q2
      Scalo 18MW Started Q4, Completed Q1, Sold Q3
      Lanuvio 16MW Started Q4, Completed Q1, Sold Q3

      And my guess is that they have already started in Q1 or early Q2 another 48MW ac of the 130MW disclosed! (i.e. Pofi, Compovillano, Montebello and others)...

      Now it is just a game of "Which Short Covers First"!

      • 4 Replies to analyze_this_stock
      • << Now it is just a game of "Which Short Covers First"! >>

        Don't you think that news has already been factored in? The Italian government has been saying for over two weeks now that current projects would be grandfathered. I think the only new information today is the cap numbers -- which are lower than the initial post-Japan announcements suggested.

      • Very nice information. Thank.

        Congrats and good luck!

      • You are absolutely correct. The risk SPECIFIC to SPWRA was that their projects for the 2H2011 will not get grandfathered in. This does not seemed to be the case anymore. It looks like the CAP will affect NEW projects moving forward. I think that all the solar companies know that Italy will be down starting in 2012...so this should have already been factored into SPWRA estimates for 2012.
        I do not think that SPWRA has much exposure to Italy for 2012 as they are now focusing more on the US.

        Again the risk was on the 2H2011 where SPWRA has a few projects coming online in the September 2011 timeframe. No one wants to talk about this...The analysts are clueless as they can't distinguish the risks of the Italy CAP among the Solar companies.

      • No evidence of any short covering today. Volume tepid as usual, action sleepy.

    • Obviously they are concentrating on Italy. The Cali news is really old news. Yesterday we cleared the final hurdles, but that was expected. Things have improved in the last few minutes but we are still trailing the sector.

 
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