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SunPower Corporation Message Board

  • mtwashingtonmike mtwashingtonmike Apr 24, 2014 8:40 PM Flag

    a lot of wild eyed optimists on this board

    $35 tomorrow, $40 in May, $60 or even $80 before the year is out. Short squeezes, big moves etc. etc. I am not a believer. Six months of running in place have embittered me. $35.00 tomorrow? No way. $40 in May? Maybe! $60 or $80 this year? Puhleeze. The only way those numbers get hit is if the market takes off and some serious froth develops. If that happens I will be looking to punch out. I will be happy if we can establish a new trading range. A move to $45 or so followed by the inevitable profit taking with a new floor established at recent highs around $36. This year I will be doing a jig if we can hit $50 and stick.

    Short squeeze? Check the chart on FSLR. In April of last year and March of this year FSLR had huge moves that stuck. 20-30% moves in a day followed by consistent moves up in the following days. When the inevitable profit taking occurs the stock does not fall much below the initial moves. Those are short squeezes. The test of a squeeze is after a big move the shorts pile in. They get frustrated if the stock continues to march higher so they cover and push the stock even higher. When it peaks they try again and maybe send it back to around where the initial single day move finished. However buyers come in and force frustrated shorts to cover again and a new higher range is established.

    We have never seen that kind of action in SPWR although some have made the case that we have seen sort of a slow motion squeeze with SPWR last April-May, or August- October. April-May perhaps as there was many high volume days as the stock doubled, a sure sign of short covering. August-October? That was bucket's low volume rise that had many on the board questioning its sustainability, including myself , but a new range was established.

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    • You would have told Henry ford to buy a horse.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • She gets her uptrend back tomorrow. This is good. I will leave the wild speculation to others.

      • 1 Reply to chasendamoney
      • BTW, for what its worth...
        Grabbing this ascending trend line is a big deal regardless of the shlt I post. Tomorrow at the open, this line will be at 32.30 and will climb from that point. Its a big deal going forward for the stock to maintain this line and its momentum. One other poster mentioned 40pps on May 5th. On this date, the line will be 32.92. You get the point. Want to see what can happen when a stock loses a key trend line?? Take a look at CLF. I swing the stock and I know Solarmanmike does as well, although, I have a feeling he is still holding. Broke a key ascending trend line back on Jan 09. The stock then proceed to drop for several weeks. From 1/27 to 2/05, the stock began to develop it footing and a lower trend line. Then comes the....?? Bounce. Stock bounced, just like SPWR the last few days but one difference. CLF never got its ascending trend line back. In fact, it never even got close. 23 for a high on 2/14. What comes next??? The next leg down, of course. Repeat the process. Draw the upper trend line and wait for a break, but it never comes with CLF. Just keeps Flunk A Dunken. Great for swings but god awful for the fundamental investor. Either way... Tomorrow is and hopefully will get the upper trend line back and resume the drive. Don't ever let someone tell you that SPWR might not have been printing 21.50 on June 1st. Technically, it could have been the case. There is a happy medium with technicals and fundamentals. I just don't suspect these two world ever find a happy medium unless it convenient for both parties involved. You can bet your bottom dollar the smart money uses both and has it figured out. I took a pathetic 100 lot gamble. Going to roll with them unless the low channel breaks. No matter how high this goes tomorrow, I would wager the line gets tested again or comes close. Shares are in my IRA, might as well.... Lets hope the gap at 29 is a break away gap.

    • Solar sector has much higher growth ahead than companies like AMZN, LNKD, YELP, FB , and FEYE etc. If these can trade at PE of 150 -300 then what prevents solar stocks to trade at PE of 80 ? A modest PE of even 60 will put FSLR and SPWR both comfortably above 120 per share in very near future

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • SPWR had a squeeze after the MidAmerican Holdings/Buffett investment news if I recall correctly, and that stuck.

    • When FSLR's moves occurred shorts got creamed. Short interest was markedly lower after the moves then before. With SPWR's move in August short interest rose after the shortest of dips, and has remained high ever since. Last April-May? I don't remember.

      No one hopes the wild eyed optimists like milluzzi and doctan86 are right more than me but I don't see it. I will entertain any friendly wagers against their wild predictions. My official prediction? New 52 week high in May. $50 at some point in 2014. $60 in $2014 Ha! $80? Bwhahahaha!

    • You are obviously not doing much number crunching here. The report and guidance for 2014-15 is phenomenal.

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