this means that spwr should go down to the $32s again - to fill that gap- AND to play out that bear flag.
spwr can go lower than the $32s too - as the bear flag price target is lower than the $32s. if spwr does go to the price target of that bear flag, then the gap at the $29 area can get filled!
there's a big head/ shoulders pattern on the daily chart of spwr - neckline is at $25/ $26 area (started back in april). top of right shoulder was in the $35s- but it could have gone as high as $37 too- that would have then filled that gap in the $36s.
it looks like this head/ sh pattern is still continuing to form- sorry guys for those long. stop losses maybe??
sune & csiq hav the same head/ shoulders pattern on their daily charts too! neckline for both stocks is the mid may low price- that is when the pattern started for these 2 stocks.
fslr had the same head/ sh pattern on its daily chart too- last week the pattern got completed to the necklin- neckline was around $57.80 to $60 area. then, as happens often with these patterns, the stock hit the neckline & then ran away from it big time! thus the patern was completed but as the necklin (which is support) was not breached, the stock did not go towards the price targ of the patern. so, this may occur too with the other solar stocks that hav the same head/ sh pattern once the stocks reach the neckline of the pattern. we shall c ;)
there's a small head/ sh patern on the 5 day chart too of spwr that is currently forming- right now, if spwr goes up from here to the $35 area, then that will be the right shoulder forming- then rolling over from there would be the stock going down to the neckline which is at $32.92- where the pattern started last week.
so just some prices to look for going fwd from here with spwr & the other 2 solar stocks too re those paterns forming!
& of course, patterns can get negated at any time- or stop forming- but as of now (since last week), they are still in formation!
bear flag on the daily chart is still intact!
the head/ shoulders pattern on the 5 day chart got negated yesterday when spwr went above $35.30. so, that now if off the table. but the bear flag on the daily chart is still on the table and thus still can play out next week by spwr dropping in price. next week spwr will go back below $35 - but i'm not sure if it will reach 32.92 to close the gap there- but of course, it is a definite possibility!
if spwr cannot get back in the top half of the keltner channel (an indicator similar to bollinger bands) and STAY ABOVE the mid keltner channel, then this means that spwr has now gone into a downtrend.
it is right now just AT the mid keltner channel!! mid keltner price is 35.59 as of today!
stocks in uptrends will always trade in the top half the keltner channel - stocks in downtrends will only trade in the bottom half the channel. the mid keltner is the 20 ema price. so in order for the uptrend to resume for spwr, it needs to get back into the top half of the keltner- and STAY in that top half on pullbacks!
ps- as this is options expiry for the month of august (usually a bull week every month for stocks), i was hoping that gap in the $36s would get filled during this week! it hasn't yet occurred! so, that is a gap that will still be looking to get filled in the future- just like the gap at 32.92 will too!
the $29 gap has always been up in the air as to whether it will get filled- and that is still the same today too! may or may not get filled. about 75% of gaps get filled- not 100%.
this 5 day head/ sh pattern is still playing out - today, spwr went up into the $35s and did the right shoulder top (the left shoulder top was at $35.09- so, the right shoulder top should have been somewhere around there- and it went to $35.22 today).
so the next thing spwr should do is to go down to the neckline - sorry, i only stated the neckline was at 32.92 from last week- when i SHOULD have stated that that included a gap fill at 32.92 and that the neckline is actually around $33.42 to $32.92- anywhere in that range is the neckline (which includes the gap fill).
so, watch to see if this pattern still continues to form - but as of today, it is still very much intact and is forming as it should regarding prices of the body parts of the pattern.
Patterns really do not mean $@*& right now due to volatile market conditions being churned by political reasons. If I were a charts guy/gal, I would be taking time off about now. Just my .02. I'm WAY LONG, so have nothing to worry about. :)
some people on these message boards are "traders" - so, my info given is mostly for those whom are traders OR for those who just bought spwr on the dip to the $32s and are looking to protect profits with using a stop loss - in the event the pattern of the bear flag does play out to its target price which is below $32- or in the event the head/ sh pattern continues to form- which means spwr going below $30.