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LeapFrog Enterprises Inc. Message Board

  • bottomsupinvestor bottomsupinvestor Apr 6, 2013 8:28 AM Flag

    Lower Earnings Estimates

    Why are the 2013 and 2014 estimates down from 2012? Was there a one time gain or something in 2012 or are they expecting softer sales or margins going forward???

    Thanks in advance, I am new to this company.

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    • Thanks to both of you for the helpful replies!

      I am taking the information off of the "analyst estimates" tab here on yahoo finance. They state actual earnings of -0.14/-0.12/0.60/0.60 for the last 4 quarters which totals $0.94 ttm eps. Estimates for 2013 and 2014 are $0.64 and $0.75 / shr respectively.

      I know that sometimes the estimates on Yahoo sometimes use non-GAAP numbers and are adjusted for other items. Your comments on tax issues and guidance history is most helpful.

      Going through some of the 10K/Qs are on my list of things to do today along with listening to some of the past conference calls.

      Thanks again!!!

    • Last year's EPS included some nice tax advantages, which are good for another 2 or 3 years (I forget which). Analysts included those tax advantages last year, but have decided not to use them in their future estimates. Without those advantages the 2012 EPS was $.56. This year they are expecting $.61, or roughly 10% increase.

      Like Superbowl mentions in his post, you may as well take analyst's estimates with a grain of salt as LF has beaten estimates very consistently since new management has turned the company around a couple years ago.

      Considering 2012 income from operations grew 170% from 2011 and 2012 Q4 income from operations grew 28% from Q3 2012, I find it hard to believe their growth will slow as much as analysts expect. IMHO the EPS will be more like $.80 in '13 and $1.04 in '14. And I think those numbers are a floor, not a ceiling. If LF has a good year this year, $1 EPS in '13 is very possible not counting the tax advantages.

      All IMHO, please do your own DD, but I doubt I'm the only one here this bullish.

    • Thanks in advance, I am new to this company.

      Not sure where you're getting that information but it's wrong. 2013 and 2014 are higher than 2012 . Don't confuse the higher negative number for Q1 and 2 last year to the negative estimate for Q1and2 this year. The HIGHER the NEGATIVE number means the less earnings.
      Since you are new to LF its good to know they have beat estimates for 11 Quarters, many times by a large margins. These guys are way conservative! The main knock on the stock is their product is a fad or other companys will make 'kids" tablets causing LF to lose some business. To date those people have been wrong.

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