The cash is really the kicker here. They are guiding 2013 normalized net income (not including the NOL's they still have) to be .57 - .60 compared to .56 last year. They are usually pretty conservative, but let's just say they make .60 for the year. $189M in cash comes out to $2.80/share. Let's be conservative and apply a 13 PE, which is a discount to the 15-16 multiples that HAS and MAT get. That gives you a price of $7.80. Then adding the $2.80 cash back in gives you $10.60 (HAS and MAT have little or no net cash). And that doesn't include the NOL's they still have available which will help add to that cash balance over the next few years. Seems to be the stock should be trading somewhere around $11. That would make sense to me.
BTW - I recommend everyone listen to the conference call
LeapFrog will hold a conference call to discuss first quarter 2013 financial results on May 2, 2013, at 5:30 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time). The conference call will be webcast live and can be accessed at LeapFrog's investor relations web site at leapfroginvestor (I had to edit the full site name so my post doesn't get blocked). An archive of the webcast will be available on the web site approximately three hours after completion of the call. In addition, more information about LeapFrog, including this press release and other financial and investor information, is also available on the investor relations web site.
To participate in the call, please dial (706) 634-0183 and request conference ID 36439156. A replay of the call will be available for one month. To access the replay, please dial (404) 537-3406 and use conference ID 36439156.
The problem with looking at consensus guidance is it it probably not apples to apples. On Yahoo the estimates range from 60 cents to 90 cents. That 90 cents estimate is probably not using normalized net income (which exclues the NOLs). Either that or they are extremely optimistic! So I'm sure that 90 cents is skewing esimates quite a bit.
I'd need to know each individual estimate to see what they were basing it on. Let's put it this way. The Yahoo estimates show 65 cents for 9 analysts. If there is one .90 estimate then excluding that the average consensus is .61875. If there are two .90 estimates then the remaining seven would be .5625. Unfortunatelly I don't know the breakout, but the .65 is obviously wrong.
The original poster did not mention anything about consensus. Rather, the company gave guidance for 2013 for the first time with this first quarter report and yes it is for higher sales and earnings YOY. Below is the guidance given with the 2012 Q4 report. As you can see it was lower than consensus yet they blew it away. Some companies are conservative with guidance and those numbers can't be compared to whatever analysts come up with.
"We are excited about our market-leading portfolio and new product launches for 2013, including a new learn-to-read system, new iPhone and iPad app activity products and new LeapPad tablets," stated Mr. Arthur. "As a result, despite a global economy that remains sluggish and a U.S. toy industry that declined in 2012,2 we plan to continue to grow our business at a pace significantly ahead of the market and expect net sales to increase at a high single-digit percentage growth rate. Like 2012, we will be prepared to chase upside whenever possible.
"To support our market-leading growth and our ongoing business transformation, we plan to make long-term investments in content, international expansion, online communities, systems and new platforms. Even with this investment for the future, we expect our operating margin as a percentage of net sales to remain consistent with 2012.
"Additional guidance will be provided at a later date when we have more clarity regarding our book tax accounting position. The ultimate outcome of our book tax accounting position will have no impact on cash taxes paid. We do not expect to pay any significant amount of U.S. federal taxes in the next several years."3
First quarter 2013 guidance is as follows:
Net sales to increase by about 10% compared to the first quarter of 2012.
Net loss per share to be in the range of $0.07 to $0.09, which includes a tax benefit at a 37.5% effective tax rate, compared to a net loss per share of $0.14 in the first quarter of 2012. First quarter 2012 res