Have any idea what the wild volatility(even for LF) was all about on these dates one year ago?
If you were not here a year ago there were many reasons concerning the volatility of LF.
1. Stock is a heavy shorted stock so many games were played like stop loss triggers, rumors, and all the games shorts play to get you do what they want you to do !
2. LeapFrog was a "fad", and a one trick pony.
3. LeapFrog was going to face powerful competition from Hasbro, Mattel, Toys-r-us, Apple which would STEAL SALES fron Leap. Never happened.
4. LF answer to the competition was to increase the advertising budget which they did start advertising around thanksgiving but then they ran out of inventory stock to sell so they stop advertising.
5. The 3rd Quarter was so good as indicated by many layaways the retailors reported, that the experts or shorts said the 4Q would lose alot of sales because of the record Q3. WRONG!
6. Some blame the company for running out of stock, others think it was the retailors not expecting the huge demand for LF products, it might have been a little of both.
This time around the company wants to expand the marketing network and increase sales of high profit margin software, in addition to adding new product. It's going to happen for LF , remember apple @ $44.00 or Priceline @ $10.00 now a share cost hundreds of dollars for both.
What I am wondering specifically about is 7/5 and 7/6 of last year. On 7/5 The volume was over 3 million and the pps went up .96 The next day the pps was down 1.30 before it bounced back to recoup about 1.15 of that with a volume of 2.2 million. Just looking at the historical prices and wondering what might have been going on. Again, it would seem as if an earnings report was involved with those wild swings but that didn't come until the first week of August. Anyways, thanks again.
So you are calling for a $17.40 price on LF by end of 2013? You should buy some $15 jan 14 calls right now for $0.20...buy 100 of them for $2000. When LF hits $18 they will be worth $3.20 each(ish) and the 100 calls will have a value of $32,000. Nice turn of profit....Or simpler...for each $20 you bet now you get $320 by January....
I use the options to make money on LF. I buy and sell the calls all the time. I bought the $7.50 SEP13 calls for $1.40 (ITM) each and sold today for $310...I sell enough to cover my initial cost of ALL calls plus a nice %profit...I then sit on the remainder of the calls (which are now free due to profit taking on the others) and wait...If the stock goes up even higher I can sell them for more money and If i hold and it goes down I can sell them back at a paper loss but still a profit because I already cleared enough on the partial sell back. I do this with the $7.50 and $10 calls...It's a beauty.
A lot of people will shy away in fear of a big price jump after they have sold calls but I go over the top on that and buy the long $10 and $12.50 calls way far out...Jan 15....and then I have the ability to get back in for profit if the stock gaps...
All these purchases are covered by the profits on the in and outs at $7.50 and $10...It's a little work but truly is free money!
i am very long on LF...My cost basis for the shares I hold is $6.9480 with my best block being a purchase 03/23/2011 at $4.3360
Well I certainly hope you're right about that! I was wondering about the extreme volatility on this date and the next day of last year. There were wild swings in the share price, almost as if there was an earnings report. Also there was very heavy volume. Have any idea what that may have been about? Thank you.