Asset interest sale fails to materialize. This is by far the dominant risk to the story. Without the combination of capital, LNG development experience and gas sales contracts provided by a consortium of experienced buyers, IOC’s PNG gas will remain stranded, as the company lacks both the technical capability and financial resources to develop the project on its own. Furthermore, the window to develop the project is under pressure, as the proposed queue of Australasian LNG projects exceed forecast demand from 2014 onward, ensuring that many projects will be significantly delayed or cancelled. Failure to secure financing and a gas sales contract ahead of much of its competition would critically damage IOC’s prospects.
Maybe you are just a pessimist. Or you got out of bed on the wrong side today. You must not be watching the unbelievable growth in China and India, and their increasing demand for energy. Or the strong desire in China to cut down on the terrible smog from coal-fired plants. Or maybe you have not noted the considerable interest of many parties in partnering with IOC. (Oh, if we could only be a fly on the wall at some of the discussions and negotiations.) Or maybe you have not noted the very likely exceptionally low cost of IOC's NG, or its closer proximity to major markets. Or maybe you are just short or a paid basher. IOC will get the long term financing and will acquire whatever missing pieces it needs technically to fulfill its biz plan. Most of the longs on here know these things and have confidence.
strategyguy. I'm not short this stock or any other but I am indeed a pessimist here. The post above concerning the very real risk of no interest sale by IOC was taken right from Evan Calio.
You need to open your eyes to what has happened in the LNG market over the past two years, ( GLUT ) You need to also open your eyes to the number of regional projects that are on track to bringing more LNG online.
Also look at what is going on with SHALE GAS. The US no longer needs to import any LNG. This effects markets globally. Obama is opening up SHALE GAS technology to CHINA. India is looking at SHALE GAS development.
Sorry the "longs" here are a bunch of ringers and hacks. They're pushing a story that is several years old and full of holes. jmo