Playbook for the next few months....
1) T2 log results: 2 - 3 weeks
2) PNG government approval: between tomorrow and June 15th
3) FID: very shortly after PNG government approval
4) Sell down announcement: 2 - 4 weeks after PNG approval
5) Takeover of the entire company: first takeover bid should come in before the definitive agreements are signed on the sell down. From there it will become a competitive bidding process. Company likely gets sold between $250 - $350/share if the T2 results point to T2 being at least equal in Tcfe to E/A.
I think its backwards.
SD selection will come before NEC approval. SD selection early june, NEC approval late June. Thats how I see it. I cant see NEC approval before election, and I doubt ONeil will want to approve a project when partners have not been decide on yet. Why would he want to make an executive decision prior to election and after writs without knowing who is in? Doubt he will step on his dich that close to an election.
Election begins late June and extends into early July, so if you don't see NEC approval until after the election, which seems reasonable, then we're probably talking late July-early August at very earliest--it'll take some time to form the post-election NEC. And that assumes the new parliament will be more-or-less like the old, with O'Neill as PM, so the NEC's re- formation goes smoothly, which is likely but not certain.
If NEC approval is not until then it doesn't mean the delay is at all significant and it doesn't mean there can't be important announcements before then--but it does mean there might be another episode of disillusionment with IOC deadlines when there is no definitive sell-down by end of June. We've most of us been around long enough to more or less expect that, haven't we?
1) T2 Dry hole disclosed - 2 - 3 weeks
2) PNG Government insists 2009 plan adhered to, continues to refuse to grant PDL, Duma continues to be dismissive and critical of IOC. , want's "world class" and "reputable" instead of "fly-by-night"
3) Another non-binding H.O.A. announced, this time with some defunct mutual fund in S. Korea that Carlo Civelli dug up. Stock tanks on "news"
4) No FIDS of any kind. Stock drifts lower. EWC under selling pressure as well as FLEX LNG. Secondaries announced for EWC, IOC, and FLEX all in the same week. Stock plummets.
5) O'Neill announces troops to be dispatched to protect refinery from landowners and students. Phil announces auction of Refinery property under pressure from OPIC loan officers. Minimum bid of $2 million. No one signs up to bid.
I like your list of milestones. I hope they fall in place as outlined. What makes June 15th a key date? Is that the date of the elections? From the last statement "FID for Mitsui extended until June 30, 2012"