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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • zzztopster zzztopster Jun 15, 2012 11:16 AM Flag

    AGM Slide 15 Shareholders

    You should note Soros is not listed with his 1.57 million shares. The top 10 own 55.53% in comparison to institutions as a whole according to NASDAQ owning 61.83% but that would include Soros. At that point of the accounting RC owned 2.67 million shares.

    You'll note changes in the line up of the top ten including sell downs which has reduced ownership levels.

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    • If this is all true, it also makes it unlikely that they would allow a true short squeeze, as they would have a lot to lose.

      But most of all, it makes the crusade that many on this board are on to find the board's individual short conspirators rather silly.

      I guess it still makes Tilson a devil in a suit, but he would clearly be in some big and well healed company.

    • at least I think more

    • Sorry 10% over 65% or 17% of the institutional ownership is betting against the firm on any given day....

    • More math...

      Using the NASDAQ listing from 3/31 and putting the two Capital funds together as one unit I come out with the top 10 funds owning 24,927,759 shares.

      I take the slide 15 total of 26,750,756 shares and this makes an increase of 1,822,997 shares for the top 10 with RC increasing his total by 4,319,095 shares thus off setting Soros sales dropping out of the top 10.

      According to NASDAQ on March 31 institutions owned 29,785,325 shares. If everything stayed the same using IOC's numbers and subtracting from NASDAQ's top 10 and adding it to IOC's top ten then the institutions would own 31,608,322

      NASDAQ says on March 31 institutions controlled 61.83% of the float.

      Accordingly today they control 65.61% of the float.
      Going to Slide 15 insiders control 16.12% of the float.

      The total would then be 81.73%. This has been a number of some doubt for awhile. It should be fairly close but not knowing how much more RC has purchased.

      Mr. Math....

      The Zimmmmm

      • 2 Replies to zzztopster
      • zzz, thanks for your work. I have not compared yours to the numbers from the recent seeking alpha post on "short squeeze coming," but the numbers have to be similar. Certainly the conclusions are the same, the tradable float is thin, and could shrink further in any one of several scenarios.

        Here's one; maybe Ken or others can tell me if this is legal. Let's say that XOM buys 25% of Elk/Ant. (Hypothtetical; I know nothing secret.) They and all other bidders are then notified who won and that they are now released from their silent period under the NDA. What's to keep RDS, COP, or CVX, for instance from buying up 5-10% of IOC common stock almost immediately, albeit likely at a premium?
        [I think they would have to wait until after a public announcement of the E/A sale to XOM, to effect a price, but they may be lining up blocks of stock with institutions now, and be ready for a run on the open market, too. BTW five day delays on reporting buy/sales are common and legal.]

        My point is that the shorts would get far more pressed and the longs could be very happy in just hours or at least a few days. And this is only one scenario.

      • Nice ZZZ, did you include my 750,000? hahaha

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