as of 820pm EST there are already 3 different stories posted in PNG media outlets regarding a row between Duma and O'Neill, IOC on notice, Interoil must fulfill agreement etc etc. These are all basically regurgitated stories from weeks ago with no incremental newsworthiness. I think its reflective of just where we are right now with PPS at $72 +/-, on the eve of elections, deals being worked out and most importantly, shorts getting very worried this one is getting away from them. I caution everyone to avoid premature celebrations as they are not going to go quietly into that good night. There is serious capital at risk here and I believe that the shorts, at least the professional institutional types, will do whatever is necessary to cover their retreat. Plan for and expect some underhanded nastiness ahead. The stakes couldn't be higher.
Yes, especially the use of humor on the Boards. In fact, a recent study out of UCLA found that 12 out of every ten message board posters were "played like a fiddle", and went from long to short, when humorous posts were made. Strangely enough, a study out of USC found similar results, but found that it was 14 out of ten were played "like a piano". The University of Phoenix is now replicating the study.
IMHO many are hedged. See the calls outstanding. Some of those long calls are hedging whereby they will deliver short shares ve long calls at settlement.They certainly are not fully hedged.
Part of the short stock position is the Convert holders who are long the convert and short stock. Which meana they are collecting the coupon only without risk of the stock price moves.
Most of the short interest has been the Market Makers in my opinion who with all the bullish call activity have needed a hedge for their book of business.Or long call buyer has the market maker sell short stock to hedge their book.
"IMHO many are hedged. See the calls outstanding. Some of those long calls are hedging whereby they will deliver short shares ve "long calls at settlement.They certainly are not fully hedged. "
I agree with Kenny.
"Part of the short stock position is the Convert holders who are long the convert and short stock. Which meana they are collecting the coupon only without risk of the stock price moves."
Funny enough, on "normal" days we would have some 20 basher posts by now. (Bonk is doing a good job at standing in for them though)
Obviously Hempton is regrouping and deciding on new strategy.
We will find out soon enough.
10 million shares short is 700 million, at borrowing costs of 1,5% per month that is 10 million per month that the shorts are bleeding, not counting the loss on the short position itself.
They must do something soon, or risk being blown to pieces.
to be completely frank, I'm not sure what is left for them to do but I believe they have means and motive to try anything to change the intended course we all hope for. That leaves government meddling, planted media stories, bribery, election rigging, share manipulation and all manner of subterfuge. And that's just the guys betting against IOC. We haven't even discussed what Shell has the means to do; they're in a league of their own when it comes to this stuff. I'm not fear mongering here but rather reminding all that we've not won anything yet. There is a long way to go.
At this point I dont think these stories will have much of an impact on PPS. Too many times duma has recycled the same complaint. In fact most PNG watchers seem to feel Dumas days may be numbered.
Duma's in desperate political shape. Wants to force an announcement of the deal he knows is done in order to get credit. I think his province votes next weekend. IOC and O'Neil are holding the deal back to burn him while O'Neil protects IOC with PR. What would you do if you were IOC after all the heartache Duma's caused? Bury him.
I don't think anyone, at least those of us who are long would shed a tear when he disappears like the dodo bird did.He was relentless in his constant negative barrage of lies and propaganda all for his own gain. He's lost and I have absolutely no pity for him. He's gone soon!!!
Tommorrow we try for //$75\\, or higher. No mercy for the shorts.
PS, what kind of tactics are left for the shorts to try?
As predicted earlier today. Bonk and Eric can always be relied upon to tip off when something is coming. Could be one last barrage or one of a few, but their turning "positive" today was a sure sign. Throw out the kindness, then cut your throat. Too obvious.
Actually I was fired this week from the hedge fund that was paying me to bash, so I am free now. You are right about much of what you say, except I would like nothing more than for IOC to squash the shorts at this point...