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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • pickboone pickboone Jan 10, 2013 6:55 AM Flag

    Speculation and timing

    The stock broke out of an important range yesterday, and the charts point to a swift move up to $66. Fortunately, as the deal finalization process is occurring crude oil is hitting 3 month highs today, Nautilus Minerals' hostile takeover attempt is spurring speculation that the same thing is about to happen to InterOil, and all of the press coming out of PNG has only included positive references by Duma and O'Neill about the Gulf project.

    Interestingly, for the first time in many months the number of shares lent out by my broker declined yesterday. I don't know if this is the beginning of a sustainable squeeze, but it's something to keep an eye on nonetheless and could put significant upward pressure on the stock. Meanwhile, with WTI rallying towards 100 just as InterOil is finalizing a deal, the conditions are ideal for the company to get optimal pricing for its resource.

    It's the first time in a while that the technical and fundamental factors are lined up so perfectly for InterOil just as the short interest is peaking near 11 million shares. Many other heavily shorted commodity plays have rallied much more than InterOil in recent weeks, and it's time to play catch up after months of significant underperformance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Pick,

      You are a great spinner of tales.

      "Optimal pricing for its resource" will have EXACTLY ZERO to do with respect to WTI price, or any other reference price, at the time of any deal being cut.

      The next thing you and your SHU cult buddies will be telling us is that Phil has presciently delayed consummating a deal to take advantage of crude prices he knew were on the way after the New Year.

      If Raymond James' official view that crude is going to AVERAGE $65 in 2013 is true, then Phil better get off his duff and get the deal done, so to avoid missing "optimal pricing." Please call him and tell him to hurry or shareholders will be less than amused.

      In addition, the longer this nonsense goes on, the more likely it is that the reference price will be something like Henry Hub rather than WTI or NYMEX crude prices for any takeoff agreements that might become associated with the project.

      God forbid IOC is at an IMPASSE, just like they were in late summer last year.

      VS

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Pick, your analysis far exceeds the pros at RJ and MS. It may be time for a television appearance.
      Thank you for the posts.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • One other point is that I view the collapse in options volatility as a sign that the shorts are way too complacent. The new year has just started, the NEC has granted approval for the project to move ahead, and there are no additional things that need to happen before a deal is announced. Without the early indications that everyone's used to, an announcement will likely happen much more unexpectedly than in the past. I expect the options premiums to rise in the coming days as shorts who are scared by the positive stock action buy calls to hedge their bloated positions.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
IOC
58.47+0.75(+1.30%)Jul 2 4:02 PMEDT