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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • raiseyou33 raiseyou33 Jan 16, 2013 3:32 PM Flag

    When is not now.

    According to the company's own PR, otherwise known as pngindustrynews, final bids are not yet in as they are waiting on the completion of testing from A3 which may affect the resource estimates.

    The testing, alone, may take a few weeks depending on the weather.

    Anyone who says a deal is imminent is either puffing nonsense or does not believe the company's own words.

    Enough with imminent, tomorrow or next week. It is all nonsense and those who state otherwise have zero credibility.

    All I want from the company is a little transparency regarding the bidding process. What is the date by which final bids are due?

    "Ongoing project talks" just don't cut it anymore based upon the past proclamations MADE BY IOC regarding a sell down.

    What does that actually mean? "Ongoing project talks" would adequately describe the postings on this message board.

    This process is turning into a complete circular fallacy.

    We can't accept bids for a sell down because we don't know how big the resource is yet.
    We can't know how big the resource is because we haven't finished drilling and testing.
    We cannot continue drilling and testing because we need more capital from a selldown.

    They have stated that they already have enough gas to start their project, the one they always wanted, the one the NEC recently approved, regardless of how much more they have at Elk/Antelope, TRI, and other prospects.

    Perhaps we will have more clarity "NEXT WEEK".

    Respectfully,

    Raiseyou

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Raiseyou, you have a serious reading problem, are grossly biased, and/or are a dam liar, probably at least the latter two; and no "respect" for your #$%$ is intended.

      Calling pngindustrynews "the company's own PR" reveals your bias and your own LACK of any minimal respect right up front. Your statement that they or the article say final bids are "waiting on the completion of testing from A3 " is totally false, intended or otherwise; it is not in the article and in fact is not true. On being asked about the impact of the well on project talks, "he said it confirmed the reefal structure, permeability and porosity", PAST TENSE. That effect was there some time ago and, in combination with the approval by the NEC of the use of a contract LNG operator, has already caused some bids to go up. Already, before this article, the bidding and sell down process through the investment bankers was in the final stage; and I am confident a deadline is in place for best, final, binding bids from all bidders, after coordination with them of the time each needed for approval by their Capex Committee, BOD, etc., after which a selection is to be made by the IOC BOD "promptly", as they stated recently. Nothing at this point is waiting on A3, resource estimates, or anything of that nature. Some have indicated they think that deadline is January 31, but I don't know when it is; and whether you think that is "imminent" or not I don't know or care. The Company probably considers that inside information, which they would not reveal except in a PR or other public status update, which could occur anytime; or it could leak from elsewhere, given all the people involved all over the world. Wouldn't that be interesting. Such a leak, especially if associated with any names, sounds like the kind of thing that took the stock to the nineties before, if I remember correctly.

      The "ongoing project talks" term you chastise the Company for is not a quote from the CFO, but a term used by the writer of the article in his questions.

      Your "circular fallacy" #$%$ is just that, an inaccurate, distorted "fallacy" on your part that does not even deserve any further comment.

      About the only thing you have right is their having enough gas, and you MIGHT be right about more clarity "NEXT WEEK", or if not "perhaps" not long after that.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to getitrt2
      • Getit,

        Are you including Palm in your attack as biased or a liar. It seems that I am pretty much in agreement with him regarding this article including Colin's use of pngindustrynews to provide positive information to the public.

        From Palm

        Nice find Freddie. And this confirms again what IOC management said at last year's AGM. They knew there were negative forces in the PNG press and they had a plan to combat it; work with certain publications to keep those within PNG and others watching the project informed. Use PRs as they are intended; to give required updates and use the press to keep things updated as necessary. Collin also appears more and more to be that person updating the press. So Ant 3 is indeed a very prolific well that likely will result in increased resource estimates, AND both the government and bidders are very interested in the Ant 3 testing. Testing is going to continue for "the next few weeks" which means the government and bidders want that test info. This confirms what we've surmised; we likely have "a few more weeks" until we hear anything substantial. Could get something sooner, but my expectations just went back on cruise control. Thanks for the info Collin.

        I will expect you to blast him on SHU at any moment.

        Raiseyou

      • Getit.

        I don't understand your anger.

        My post was in response to the constant barrage of posts that state that a deal will be done tomorrow or next week.

        I believe I made myself pretty clear in that regard.

        I did not chastise the company for using the term "ongoing project talks". All I stated was that the quotes and the tone of the article are in-congruent with an "imminent" deal.

        I don't believe I am the one that put forth the idea that final bids were being delayed to wait upon the results from A3. There are several long posters, perhaps who you respect, that have put forth that as a reason for the delay.

        No one would be happier than I to see a deal announced tomorrow.

        Again, I don't think a deal is imminent and apparently you agree.

        Regarding the PR comment, it does appear to me that Colin Visaggio is making a concerted effort to issue statements through pngindustrynews. I don't think that pointing that out is at all controversial.

        What is your interpretation of the article Getit? Perhaps you have the time to share as you certainly have ample time to insult me by referring to me as a liar.

        My post was a direct response to the "deal tomorrow" posters who flood this board.

        Who has been more dishonest, me or them?

        Still respectfully,

        Raiseyou

    • Can you have a bid based on what is currently known, with addtional payments based on future test results/performance? I know this is done when companies are taken over (e.g. earnouts, performance payments etc) but not sure in this context.

    • I just read the artice.

      I do not see anywhere in the article a statement that final bids are not in and that they are waiting for further test results from Antelope 3.

      That may or may not be true, but it is not stated in the artice. Not sure where you are getting that. Not from the article though.

      All he says is that he expects the resource estimates to be higher.

      • 3 Replies to slr375201us
      • Pickboone is one of SU's yahoo darliings. In the pumper tradition, he clearly is implying the bids are not final:
        "Depending on the degree of variance in pososity and permeability, this new data could have a material positive impact on the size of the resource. The timing is perfect, as a sell-down is being finalized."
        Seems to me Raiseyou is just trying to provide a perspective on the constant pumper barrage. And the latitude of interpretation that IOC communications is legendary. The truth is clearly we don't know where they are in the bidding process, but past communications have always betrayed an IOC willingness to delay finalization ad-infinitum on the hope that more data might lead to higher bids.

      • Sir,

        I will ask again.

        In your opinion, what did he say?

        What would be your basis for concluding that final bids are in?

        I have apologized for my inadvertent misrepresentation but you chose to bring it up again.

        You can conclude that my post and this board has no merit and not read or post anything in the future or you can provide your own constructive input or opinion.

        I have always welcomed contrary opinions that may demonstrate that I am in error.

        The choice is yours sir.

        Raiseyou

      • Sir,

        On how the well could impact ongoing project talks, he said it confirmed the reefal structure, permeability and porosity.

        “Testing is continuing,” Visaggio said.

        “Depending upon weather and operational factors we should be complete in the coming weeks.

        “We expect the results will increase the resource estimates made by our certifiers GLJ [Petroleum Consultants] and also by the state and partner certifiers.”

        I am making a logical extrapolation, rightly or wrongly, that if they are conducting "ongoing project talks" and that the testing could impact those talks, final bids cannot be in.

        Regards,

        Raiseyou

    • After all this time i'm surprised you would expect a deal anytime soon. My thinking is may-june. Until then the shorts will mainulate. Expect another ride towards 50 before the end of spring.

      Really Mgmt is horrible at this company. But thankfully the resource is in the right place at the right time and is large.

      I do fully expect IOC to lose several og their most promising "pearls" as I see no way, no do I think the Govt will help them, keep them. The govt does need to throw Shell a bone. They wont do IOC any special favors. The Elk3 extension was it i'm told.

      • 1 Reply to lotsofng
      • lots, I am confident you are wrong on all counts.

        We are not looking at "quarters" here; I expect much sooner.

        You are in no position to evaluate management.

        I am also confident they will lose NO "pearls". They are meeting and will meet their lease investment requirements, and the government is now a fully supportive partner. Shell will get no IOC "bones" unless they buy out the Company at a competitive price. You have been told wrong or are lying.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It is more prudent to better know what [ how much ] you're selling before you sell it ! If the resource is growing and some company wants to buy it all, you would need to "finalize" the estimates first.FWIW
      ed

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 4 Replies to edsilverstreak
      • No, ed. One will never have a "final" estimate of such as that before production. The sale will be on a "per unit" basis with up-front money based on best concurrent estimates, and they have enough information now for that. A share of Triceratops, etc. was sold at a much earlier stage without any certified estimates, but is a much different situation otherwise not involving a current LNG project. IMO.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • How much they have will likely change as they drill more wells.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Respectfully Ed,

        That is not the plan that IOC has put forward. They want to start with a smaller project due to more interest from bidders and more ease of financing and building the thing.

        This is what we have been told.

        This does not require them to sell the whole thing so they don't need to know, right now, how much they have.

        All they need to know is if they have enough gas for their project and they have repeatedly informed us that they do.

        Raiseyou

      • "It is more prudent to better know what [ how much ] you're selling before you sell it ! If the resource is growing and some company wants to buy it all, you would need to "finalize" the estimates first.FWIW"

        Mulacek Quote #2:

        "00:49:22 Prior to this well we started a selldown with strategic partners, whether that's japan, china, and we had a phenomenal amount of interest.
        00:49:30 So we put that on hold until after this well because we can't price the value until we understand the oil and the condensate. " - Phil - Fast Money Transcript- Oct 2009

        Mulacek Quote #1:

        We are in discussions, a vast number of companies on at least 3 continents have expressed interest joining our acreage following the Elk-1 discovery and flow test."
        - Phil Mulacek, Apr 4, 2007

        Mulacek Quote #5:

        "We are working with our advisors to finalize a strategic LNG partner, which will enhance the overall process and value for our shareholders, all of them which are accretive. This was further accelerated after the announcement of the Pacific Rubiales farm-in transaction. This helped to establish pricing benchmarks, improved our commitment to the sell-down process to the overall bidders. After this announcement, we saw significant heightened bidding by the bidders."
        - Phil Mulacek, May 14, 2012

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • "All I want from the company is a little transparency regarding the bidding process. What is the date by which final bids are due?"

      That would help with which calls to buy! Great idea. Call Mr. Andrews, perhaps he will tell you.

    • "We can't accept bids for a sell down because we don't know how big the resource is yet."

      Mulacek Quote #2:

      "00:49:22 Prior to this well we started a selldown with strategic partners, whether that's japan, china, and we had a phenomenal amount of interest.
      00:49:30 So we put that on hold until after this well because we can't price the value until we understand the oil and the condensate. "

      Phil - Fast Money Transcript- Oct 2009

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • The only thing you'll have next week is one more week of empty promises and bull sht.

      Just like you've willingly gobbled down the past several years.

 
IOC
57.90-1.12(-1.90%)Sep 15 4:04 PMEDT

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