Good one bull, but I can understand their frustration. I've owned IOC since late 2007 and experienced a rollercoaster ride with regards to the pps movement and the many press releases and articles written. I will stick with them till they announce their/our deal. I know everyone is weary of hearing the same rhetoric with regards to a deal/deals, but the facts regarding the resources make an undisputable statement as to the intrinsic value of IOC. The price may be temporarily pegged at $60, but that WILL take a huge jump upward upon an announcement.
See, Ed, that is false thinking. It all depends on the terms of the deal, and keep in mind that IOC has a current enterprise value of $3 billion. That is in today's dollars. So, whatever deal may or may not be announced has to have future cash flows to the company that will exceed $3 billion in today's dollars. As Bonk has discussed extensively, comparable transactions, cash flows, and valuations contradict this assertion. In other words, you should be prepared for the potential announcement of a "deal" and a stock that may decline...and decline sharply. It might not move at all. And perhaps it will increase, though I am banking that this does not happen even if they announce this deal you are counting on.
Or Ed could also be prepared for a stock that may increse in PPS and increase sharply. At .50 per mcf valuation, with increasing resource proved up , its much more likely that even a weak deal would increse PPS. Even the deal that was presented at $1.50 would revalue IOC upwards in a huge way.
Excellent points Eric. Recall when the Mitsui deal was announced (I specifically remember JS taunting you that you were about to get "Mitsu-eed"), on April 15, 2010 - the stock was at $73.14 the day prior. Within a couple of weeks it had dropped to 58, and in a little over 2 months it droped to $44.37. A decline of 40% in a little over 2 months after "the big deal" was announced.
I understand the frustration too Ed. But as you know patience and discipline win the game. The PNG Industry News article was huge, but mostly ignored as the high frequency hedge funds try and unwind their positions