#1 "We are in discussions, a vast number of companies on at least 3 continents have expressed interest joining our acreage following the Elk-1 discovery and flow test." - Phil Mulacek, Apr 4, 2007
#2 "00:49:22 Prior to this well we started a selldown with strategic partners, whether that's japan, china, and we had a phenomenal amount of interest.
00:49:30 So we put that on hold until after this well because we can't price the value until we understand the oil and the condensate. " Phil - Fast Money Transcript- Oct 2009
#3 "we have lawyers and transaction teams working around the clock on every continent to ensure the valuable LNG transaction for all partners is secured....we're all on track to reach our transaction goals by the end of this year." - Phil - CC - Nov 2011
#4 "As mentioned earlier, we're still working on final transactions in the $5 to $7 per Mcf range, which really puts in light the differences between where we stand today." - Phil - Nov 2011
#5 "We are working with our advisors to finalize a strategic LNG partner, which will enhance the overall process and value for our shareholders, all of them which are accretive. This was further accelerated after the announcement of the Pacific Rubiales farm-in transaction. This helped to establish pricing benchmarks, improved our commitment to the sell-down process to the overall bidders. After this announcement, we saw significant heightened bidding by the bidders." - Phil Mulacek, May 14, 2012
#6 "As stated before, we are now set to engage with a short list of significant industry participants in a view of concluding these discussions and entering into agreement this quarter." - Phil Mulacek, May 14, 2012
#7 "Regarding conforming and non-conforming bids, some visit the government first. Others say they bid and they'll follow up after the final short list process, which we just reviewed with the Board of Directors this weekend and just completed with the advisors. So that process is underway." PM - May 2012
#8 "On the LNG front during the quarter, we continued to have a number of approaches for more LNG off-takes by LNG consumers and LNG partnering proposals through the investment banks. Most bidders are in the final stages of due diligence, and we see the culmination of these bids during the second quarter of this year." PM - March 2012
#9 "The PNG constitutional confusion did slow the process down over the last few months, but we saw the paralysis free up and the government sectors are now focusing on the Gulf LNG project. The Prime Minister reconfirmed his FID goal for the Gulf LNG project, and the PNG government has seen a number of interested" PM - March 2012
#10 ""The company staff are relentlessly working on all required project aspects and parts to close and achieve FID. The sale process is in the final stages of LNG partner selection with selection expected this coming quarter." PM - March 2012
#11 ""People worried about the writs in the election. We've never seen that that is a deterrent, in the fact of after the writs were issued, we got our NEC project agreement executed when we originally did the refinery. So I just want to put that one to bed that it's not a material on it." - PM March 2012
#12 ""So as we state, we see that we'll be through our bid process this quarter. We think all the timings aligned on the overall project." PM - March 2012
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"final transactions in the $5 to $7 per mcf range"
Hah! I can't believe you people attacked me for calling BS on this two years ago.
What's even more perplexing is you defended Phil and his comments at every turn, not giving even an inch. And now that he's "retired" you all stab him in the back, blame him for everything, and call him a buffoon? But yet somehow I am still tarred for being right.
I don't give a whoop, of course, but the hypocrisy is very entertaining.
Have a great week.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
What has happened since Mar 12?
Port Moresby and Houston, TX — InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC) (POMSoX: IOC) (“InterOil” or the “Company”) today announced receipt through an unofficial channel, from the Department of Petroleum and Energy (DPE), of a copy of a notice of intention to cancel the 2009 LNG Project Agreement between Liquid Niugini Gas Limited and the Independent State of Papua New Guinea. Having considered the issue carefully with our external advisers, we are strongly of the view that the State has no right at present to terminate the Project Agreement. The notice does activate a six month consultation period during which the parties are to explore steps to deal with or remedy the DPE’s concerns.
I suppose Bonk thinks this shuld be ignored and the sale process should be completed in view of this.
Port Moresby and Houston, TX — InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC) (POMSoX: IOC) (“InterOil” or the “Company”) today announced that its board of directors has approved the addition of two members. Sir Rabbie Namaliu, the former Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, and Samuel Delcamp, former Executive Director and Chief Investment Officer of the Fuller Foundation, have both joined the Board. In keeping with good corporate governance practices, the Board also decided to separate the roles of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. Gaylen Byker was appointed Chairman of the Board. Phil Mulacek will continue as Chief Executive Officer.
So Mulacek not in complete control now. Hmm, wonder what this means?
Port Moresby and Houston, TX — InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC) (POMSoX: IOC) (“InterOil” or the “Company”) is pleased to have been notified by the Prime Minister Hon. Peter O’Neill that the National Executive Council (NEC) of Papua New Guinea has approved InterOil’s LNG development project in the Gulf Province. The decision clears the way to proceed with our plans for an LNG plant in the Gulf Province with initial output of a minimum of 3.8 million tonnes per annum. As the Prime Minister has announced, the decision also approves the acquisition by the State of an additional 27.5% equity interest in the Elk/Antelope gas fields, over and above the 22.5% interest to which it is entitled under the Oil & Gas Act, on terms to be negotiated with InterOil.
Oh, the project is now back on track. Maybe the sale can proceed.
Antelope 3 successful - confirms reservoir continuity between 1 and 2 wells.
Separately, InterOil announced that it has advised bidders with which the Company has been in discussions that the final binding bid solicitation period for the partnering process currently being undertaken will close on February 28, 2013. The InterOil Board of Directors intends to meet the Company’s advisors during the first week of March 2013 for the purpose of evaluating bids received and selecting our partner(s) for the development of the Gulf LNG Project utilising gas from the Elk and Antelope fields in Papua New Guinea.
I'll agree that Mulacek is a wild card, but the weight of evidence and occurences in 2012/13 suggest the deal will be made.
The gas is there - I've seen the data.
The productivity is also confirmed, though some non technical people have complained that a reservoir limits test was not conducted. What these people don't understand is that a reservoir limits test is designed to determine if there is any measurable pressure reduction in the reservoir due to a given quantity of production. (Think of your gas tank - after you fill it up, you have to drive a whilhe before you see any discernable drop in the fuel gauge.) If you have a 6 tcf gas reservoir, to measure a pressure reduction with any precision production would have to be very substantial - tens of billions cubic feet of gas. Clearly burning this much gas is simply a waste - the PNG government and others see no need for this waste.
So lets hope that Mulacek does not mess this up, but I think he cannot at this time. The stop in pps increase at the $75/sh range is probably indicative of the Mulacek factor.
We;ll see quite soon.
I should have been more precise - I've seen all the publicly available data and talked with the Interoil G&G team at their technical presentations. I'm convinced this is no Beaver River (carbonate gas reservoir in British Columbia which surprised Amoco in the 1970s) and that this is the real deal - matrix porosity and permeability make it highly likely to have the estimated resource. This resource will be changed to reserves when the LNG FID is secured and a gas sales agreement to the LNG plant is signed. This is not difficult - the Chinese, Japanese, or Koreans will want this gas. maybe even PTTEP or SPC will want it.
For some info on the huge LNG demand in Asia
Wood Mackenzie: SE Asia LNG demand growth to far outstrip India’s to 2025
Wednesday, February 20, 2013 - 10:44AM GMT+7
(SINGAPORE/edinburgh/houston, 20th February 2013) -- Wood Mackenzie says that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) suppliers looking to sell into Asia should increase their focus on the combined South East (SE) Asian markets - predominantly Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore - as the LNG appetite of these markets increase. Meanwhile, India, while offering an attractive LNG market opportunity, may not be of the scale many hope.
The combined SE Asian LNG markets will account for a third of overall Asian LNG demand growth by 2025, growing by 45 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa). However, the rate of India's LNG market growth may not be as sizeable as once thought, growing by 20 mmtpa within this timeframe.
Wood Mackenzie's Senior Gas Market Analyst, Mr. Nicholas Browne, says "Recent developments in Indonesia and Thailand have helped strengthen the outlook for very strong SE Asian LNG demand growth. In India, we are now seeing faltering domestic gas production and this is expected to limit the development of the gas market. Perhaps counter-intuitively to some, reduced gas production will also lower the rate of LNG market growth in India.”
On Indonesia's role in boosting SE Asian LNG demand growth, Mr. Browne says, "Indonesia will increasingly require LNG as we expect domestic demand to outpace domestic supply. Early coal bed methane pilot well results in South Sumatra indicate that production will not meet previous expectations providing more headroom for LNG"
As for Thailand, Wood Mackenzie expects a trend of higher gas demand due to policy decisions in the power sector, limiting the scope for coal-fired power generation resulting in an increasing reliance on gas-fired power plants. This will drive LNG demand significantly post-2020 as indigenous gas and pipe imports will be unable to meet the demand.
Regarding India, production from Reliance's D6 block has fallen from a peak of 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 to 11 bcm in 2012. Wood Mackenzie forecasts production from D6 to continue falling, reducing the overall outlook for Indian gas production. Mr. Browne says, “This will constrain gas availability to the market, mainly impacting the power sector in the medium term. In the longer term, reduced production will preclude the development of greenfield fertiliser production as it is not economical to develop facilities purely based on LNG imports. In addition, LNG demand growth in other industrial sectors is further limited by reduced economic growth expectations.”
With these market developments, overall Asian demand growth will still remain strong as SE Asia will more than compensate for India's slower LNG demand growth. Furthermore, LNG demand expectations for Asia have strengthened in recent years due to the reduced long-term reliance on nuclear power in Japan and Taiwan; as well as an increased role for LNG to China's coastal provinces.
Summarising, Mr. Browne says, "What's important in examining this shift in the growth balance is that it demonstrates that the outlook across Asia is dynamic. This highlights the presence of key uncertainties which may further shape the outlook for the region. These include policy issues in India; gas prices and power sector fuel competition in SE Asia; the pace of shale gas development in China and nuclear policies in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan." (ends)
By now 100 or more people must know if there is a bid on the table that is significantly above the current pps of 74, .With the deadline only 5 days from now the pps should be moving up rapidly as these insiders buy--especially if they know that there is a deal in the works that makes IOC wortth more than 100. But the last two days the pps has stalled. This makes me think that we longs are in fr yet another disappointment. How many times has that happened before?
Stock up $17 in 12 days on average volume. Tickled $76 Friday. Very overbought (RSI 74). When shorts start to act volume will explode. Best that they can hope for is a 1-2 week delay.
Think 4-6 bidders are just going to walk away? I don't.