Anyone can get bids for offtake, and sure if IOC could actually deliver the gas IOC would get a decent bid to buy the gas. But a bid from a Super Major to invest, build and own is going to come in super,super low, I predict anywhere from $0.01 to $0.05
New investors should avoid IOC at all costs,
Current investors should sell or, sell a portion of what they currently own.
The incredibly low and pathetic trading volumes indicates zero institutional buying and support. In fact, it portends terribly disappointing news is coming.
You have been warned.
I'm warning you longs, do not confuse the offtake bids with the bids to joint venture and invest in this white elephant. The Super Major bids will be coming in much much lower, I predict in the range of $0.01 to $0.05
You have been warned
IMO your post is nonsense.
Let's see, "delivered" dry gas in PNG is likely worth about $7/MCF, delivered LNG in Japan about $9 more. The outfit that "builds and runs the white elephant" is in it for the differences between the (I'll say) $2.50/MCF they pay IOC to ante up in the game in the SD, plus their margins in the processes and markups, ending in delivered LNG. Obviously capital investment is required to reap those net revenues.
Others have shown in charts how cheap IOC's gas is, compared to other plays, esp. in Asia and Australia, as a result of the terrific likely output per well. There is nothing else quite like it, esp. in Asia. And the numbers from Australia continue to look worse and worse for coal seam gas wells and labor costs, etc.
I predict that XOM will be involved in whatever final deals we see, for they need NG sooner for their own LNG facilities, well before the IOC facility will be online. And all the Aussie players will need more NG, too, for they are unlikely to drill a lot of really poor wells if they can use PNG's NG to meet their needs. All this has been pointed out. These are facts.
You are pxxxing into the wind with your numbers.