We know (See IOC press release) that final and binding bids for the Elk & Antelope oil fields are due 2/28/13. We know that IOC's Board of Directors will meet the first week of March to decide who the buyer(s) are. We know that IOC has never before made a clear statement about their progress to sell and partner with others. Knowing that it's easy to realize that IOC must know that these bids will be at prices which will be very good for shareholders. Consider that IOC's chief executive officer owns millions of IOC shares. Consider that other IOC officers own significant holdings of IOC.
Don't let people who are not your friends scare you out, now that it's almost a sure thing that IOC's price will be much higher in little more than one month. IOC's share price reflects a price of about $0.45 per thousand cubic feet of certified natural gas. Should the final and binding bids be at a very low price which would be $1.00 per 1,000 cubic feet then our share prices will double. It's more likely that the sale will be at a considerably higher price. Either way, IOC is going much higher.
Can't deny that shorts are able to manipulate the price lower when there is little volume. That will pass. As it's said, no pain, no gain.
Sail, with the largest holders of IOC stock and management combined, they control approx 70% of all available stock. The available float is small and getting smaller day by day. The short count is approx. 11.4 million. If any deal is annonced at over $1.00/mcf we go to $100-$150. However I believe that we will be pleasantly surprised when a deal is announced at the $2-$3 range. This is in line with the PRE deal and is less expensive than XOM can get their own gas out of the ground. It's pure simple logic.
My advice is very simple, in response. Never, never, never trust anyone in any capacity who says
you should either own or not sell a stock "now that it's almost a sure thing that IOC's price will be much higher in little more than one month." That person cannot and should not be trusted. Do your own due diligence and make your own decision. Size and hedge appropriately, long or short.