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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • martinistocks martinistocks Feb 2, 2013 8:20 AM Flag

    The Scenarios

    Scenario 1

    March BOD meeting. Conference Room 9 a.m. Five stacks of papers are sitting on the conference table. PM starts to talk about a power point presentation on the five offers on the table. The first is from Chevron. PM prepares the highlights of the offer. Shares of the company for a percentage of Elk Antelope. The second is from Exxon. The highlights include cash for a percentage of the Elk Antelope. The third is from JKM. They want the highest percentage of the deal and offer $1.75 MCF. The fourth is from Total and they offer a low ball buy out. The fifth is from Shell. They offer $120 for the whole company.

    Scenario Two

    PM starts highlighting the offers. He is intrigued by the Exxon deal which allows IOC to continue exploration of Triceratops, Wahoo and Tuna but they get all of Elk Antelope for $100 per share dividend.

    Scenario Three

    Shell wants the gas bad but JKM comes back with a revised bid and offers $200. PM is hesitant but paces around and says. I am going to take this low ball offer just to end all this craziness about my company on the Yahoo message Board. As soon as I accept this offer Bonk, Eric and the 45 aliases disappear forever.

    Scenario Four

    Its 2016, Bonk and Eric and snake and the others are going soon, imminent, etc. and we are still holding on with hope. I like one through three. Four is unlikely.

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    • Ouch,

    • Scenario reality! Both for the longs AND the shorts. There is NO OIL or GAS, They haven;t produced a sustainable drop of ANY. They are EXCELLENT at spinning the story so that the moron longs believe there is a middleast buried under there and the shorts who believe that they won't be able to market the oil and gas. THERE is NO OIL or GAS!!! Get it?

    • Phil M. is an entrepreneur. He bought a refinery in Alaska, moved it to PNG. He started exploring for oil, didn't find any but found a lot of gas instead. So he's created value and adapted to his business situation which entrepreneurs have to do to be successful. What he hasn't done to this point, and which is something some (ultimately unsuccessful) entrepreneurs don't do, is sell part of his business to make it grow. It looks like he is about ready to do this.

      I haven't understood why XOM hasn't bought into this yet. If OSH can't find enough gas for XOM and their planned expansions then I don't see how they can not afford to buy into this.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Martin, if something like #2 happened, what do you think would happen to the share price ?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to edsilverstreak
      • In that scenario we get a dividend of a $100 per share, price goes up because everyone wants to jump on board and get the dividend right!!!! Not sure it works that way. I did that once with Microsoft they paid a huge dividend. Stock price went the other direction. I got my $3,000 at the time and the share price was reduced I believe based on that. Must of been $3.00 per share. So it went say from $30 to $27. So if IOC has such a small float there has to be some pressure when everyone is going to want in the game. Of course we may not get that dividend and scenario. Really doubt that scenario occurs but others have stated that could be a possibility. How about reality 50 million shares rounded and they pay $10 dividend and price per share drops to $49. They pay $500 million dividend. Seems small but I do think share price has to reflect it. I am sure some of the veterans will correct my thinking if necessary. I prefer the complete buyout for $200 plus not sure that is reality just wishful thinking.


    • Scenario 5 - nothing gets closed and IOC hits a brick wall at 100mph.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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