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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • lee.becky15 lee.becky15 Mar 3, 2013 7:17 AM Flag

    Wayne Andrews talks at RJ March 6th Re bidding

    IOC did recieve at least the 4 promised bids. 2 form Super Majors, 1 from a National Oil Co and 1 from a Utility
    Company can't say anything else now , winner announced in March per the 40-F.No equity offering planned!!
    Could issue debt to bridge into receipt of sell down funds. No EWC in the above bids.

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    • I hope you're correct, but I think this is your believe, rather than the fact as your statement suggests. I haven't seen anything anywhere other than the company's statement that several bids were received. We only need one, and I assume with the investment bankers we have involved, that everyone knows its pointless to offer below a certain threshold, so this is now a matter of short term finality,

      What is most interesting is that a few months ago this used to bounce up by $10 based on speculation about something positive happening. Here we have a formal announcement of receipt of several bids, and the stock goes down instead of up.

      I don't think this has much to do with short sellers, but it is a combination of too many "sell on the news" investors, and too many nervous longs, who believe but can't take the high volatility.

    • The company's previous shelf registration expired in September 2012. In order to file a new shelf a company must have recent audited financials, which is why the shelf was refreshed now as opposed to any time in the past 6 months. Hence anyone who thinks there's something ominous about the timing of this renewed shelf is ignorant or disingenuous.

      It's no secret that the sell-down will incorporate some upfront cash. In fact, even in the conference call last week the CFO stated that IOC's financial ratios will improve post sell-down. The sell-down partner will be committing future payments as well, however. With future payments locked in, IOC will be able to access the corporate debt market to accelerate receipt of liquidity. These funds could be used for share buybacks or accelerated exploration, both of which are likely to have a big positive impact on the stock. The company has absolutely no desire to issue equity and in fact, they are likely to be buying back stock soon. This was a conventional mixed shelf offering for the purpose of debt flexibility.

      The stock now trades at $0.50 per mcf and probably closer to $0.30 with Triceratops. The announcement of a sell-down bid selection this month should value the company at multiples of its current valuation. Also, the sell-down closure will result in investors ascribing valuations to IOC's exploration backlog and Triceratops, which will magnify the price appreciation. This shelf confusion has created one of the best buying opportunities imaginable, and it won't last long.

      The tweet from Citron is a joke - the last time Citron published on IOC was on March 27th 2007 citing the Ross Smith report on Elk's small gas resource. Well, this was prior to the discovery of the Antelope reef and GLJ estimates that Elk contains a tiny fraction of the structure's total resource anyway. Now there are "several" bids on the table, which confirms that the resource is sufficient to underpin an LNG project.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to pickboone
      • A deal in the $1.20/mcf range, which I understand is the average for the Asian/Indo area, would value IOC at approx 4X their current value. This weeks price drop on misunderstood comments from the cc will quickly evaporate on the deal announcement. My guess is that the short count has grown beyond the 12.4 million last reported and will help to exagerate this move upward. We've been through this many times and before and although it's not pleasant and in many cases unexpected, it's only a bump in our road to riches. You know the shorts are desperate when numerous new bashers appear from out of nowhere, as has happened this week They have no argument , [ NONE ] left in their bag of tricks . Their days are numbered and quickly disappearing.
        ed

        ............../\/\/\$125++++/\/\/\..............pretty soon

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • "The company's previous shelf registration expired in September 2012. In order to file a new shelf a company must have recent audited financials, which is why the shelf was refreshed now as opposed to any time in the past 6 months. "

        A flat out lie. The previous shelf was filed in Sept 2010 with a final version filed in November - 3 days before they announced the financing. A shelf can be filed any time. The supplements that are later filed for specific financings bring everything, including financials, up to date.

        Stay tuned for more on the shelf...

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • what does that mean? "could issue debt to bridge into receipt of sell down funds"? TIA

 
IOC
65.54+0.87(+1.35%)1:27 PMEDT

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