Two great articles in the last 15 or so hours refuting all short srguments confirming American major bids and showing hard evidence of gas being in the ground. For those who believe motley fool..... Thats exactly what you are a fool. Should be a great day for longs.
Close, but no kewpie doll, turn224. They refute all but the argument that the bids will disappoint most longs (both because the majors don't want to partner with Phil, and because they have so many other options). I disagree with this argument in the sense that I believe the post bid price will be at least 90-100, but these "great" articles you speak of do not refute that short claim.
I think you are right. A deal will be announced--just as is widely expected. But the deal will be somewhere under a $100 per share valuation, not one above that figure. That is why the current pps can't get out of the 70s. We are finally closing in on reality.
We go up to $80 - $120 in the next 30 days. I can't believe there are actually shorts in this situation. The worst case scenario is that they turn down all bidders. But given the company's current financial situation, it's very unlikely that they won't accept one of the bids.
I maintain the the O'Neill and Duma team are not allowing IOC the option to turn down all bidders (at least if they want to keep the leases). Worst case might be that IOC takes EWC and the government takes its option to buy another 25% at competitive market rates (not at the rate at which EWC partners, either), although I actually believe the government will not even allow this option. They definitely want IOC to have a major as an operator. Of course JKM would likely be quite acceptable.