IMHO, with all of the "pre-deal" hoopla, aided in no small part by Seeking Alpha puff pieces and promises of imminent lucre and bidding wars and imminent accelerated acquisitions, there are likely many, ahem, "investors" that have been pulled in thinking somehow they can buy IOC on Feb 27 and by Mar 3 they will double their money.
As time ticks on, now nearly two weeks after all the bids and the uber deals and the uber awesomeness came in, and with cryptic noises coming out of Duma, and now The Silence Of The Pumps, I think the jitters are starting to kick in.
You can almost smell the fear of those recently sucked in (let's call them The Treasure Hunters), wondering why they aren't rich yet when it's been two weeks, and also witnessing the machinations and mutual comfort behing exhibited by the SHU crowd - fantasizing about how big the short squeeze wiill be, going over ridiculous "bidding scenarios" and hiding their nervousness from each other. You know it's getting bad when people start posting "I added this morning" - which is usually false and betrays a deeper insecurity.
So having stated all of that, I think that each and every day that passes with no uber-deal announcement, the greater the chance of a self-feeding panic selloff like we saw in Jan when IOC was forced to put out the "Feb 28 deadline".
Hence: Gird Your Loins
//Peter 1:13 - Therefore gird up the loins of your mind, be sober, and rest your hope fully upon the grace that is to be brought to you at the revelation of Jesus Christ\\
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I agree with the basis of your argument 100%, Bonk. However, I will have to give credit to the head scammer in charge of this company and their fraudulent board members. They are master manipulators and have been able to "miraculously" pull the wool over the eyes of both wall street and the sheep on these boards. I am sure they are hard at work on press releases like this " Final competing bids have been received. Our management is in discussions with final bidders about a collaborating deal among these bidders. Further we are in process of acquiring additional permissions from the country regarding these deals. Final discussions are thought to take place by YEAR end"... They are excellent at #$%$ like this and will continue to mislead. I believe that they are "wishing" for a miracle. That is.... An economically viable well. They are trying to BUY time but time is not on their side. They will need to announce something sooner than later though, bc they need the cash and pefer to offer stock at these high prices. Everyday that passes without a bogus announcement, costs them money. I have puts but have been burned by expirations.
A lot of retail bought in recently, what a few thousand shares? I doubt that very very much. they are panicing because "they arent rich after 2 weeks"? Thats patently silly. You are losing your touch.
First IOC was a scam with no gas
Next it was going Bkrpt
Next it was actually a ponzi scheme
Next they faked the flare
Next the PRE deal was phoney
Next the govt was taking EA from IOC
Next they had a small amount of gas.
Next they had 6tcf according to GCA
Next the resevior wasnt continuous, there was a lake between A1 and A2
Next nobody wanted their substantial gas
Next the bids might not be high
Next "new" retail was spooked after 10 trading days and would sell crushing the PPS
Bonk, Bonk, Bonk. You seem like a very smart fellow. This post reeks of Kenny-esque desparation. Do you really think a couple hundred thousand shares from weak hands is going to smash the stock because no deal is announced today or tomorrow (could be tomorrow or in the VERY near future). Don't you realize that the weakness over these last couple days is a result of the March options decaying and delta coming out? The weak hands most likely bought March calls back in February and are going to technically get flushed out. It's happening now and the stock is at $75. That's it. And , hey, what if there is a decision tomorrow? What happened, you got tired of posting about Calvin and Hobbs? You know, Raj Gupta was convicted of insider trading and he was on the board of GS. You're playing for $10-15 downside, and riskingg a lot more. Have you ever tried to sink a beachball?
Rugby, Rugby, Rugby. What is it that causes you to act as the omnicient seer about all things investing and IOC? Is it genetic or a finely honed ego formed from spending too long surrounded by excessive testosterone on the trading floor? Confidence and conviction are great, and you are not lacking in it...an important quality in a trader. However, you reek of hypocrisy when I read your post from last week about the huge move (you said 40+) coming this week and your prediction as to what would happen then? I would say that was Kenny-esque desperation as well, a vacuous pumping effort. What if there is a "decision" tomorrow"? What might that mean? What did it mean when the Mitsui "decision" or "deal" was announced? And the Flex/EWC "deal" before that? And this rumor and that one? You want to pooh-pooh Calvin and Hobbes (my favorite cartoon of all time, for the record), that is your right and perogative. But I can tell you that you are making a mistake, in my opinion by discounting what happened there and with related parties. You may consider yourself an expert in trading and whatever, but I have done more research and testified as an expert in issues re: forensic accounting than you ever will...and ironically, I think you and others are the ones taking the risk of which you accuse Bonk. In any event, perhaps you will be proven right and make a mint. But perhaps not, and you will be left with your the profits you already made. But beachballs can easily be sunk. All you need is a pin or a good set of fingers that can pull out an air stopper. Cheers.
It's possible, but it seems to me that the deeper insecurity lies with you and the shorts and that the path of least resistance is upward as each day passes. The confirmation of several binding bids IMHO has alleviated any concerns of a potential lack of interest in the resource and set a floor in the stock from which it's poised to extend to new highs.
You are correct that while you're spending your time detecting "nuggets" about InterOil's poor corporate governance, the longs on SHU are contemplating just how fierce the competitive bidding process is for IOC's resource and just how much the stock is likely to appreciate in the coming weeks based on an influx of liquidity, a major partner unlocking $20 billion+ on value at Elk/Antelope as the resource moves from "stranded" to "commercial", and the market's ascribing value to Triceratops and the remainder of IOC's coveted acreage for the first time since the Antelope reef discovery.
Anyway, we'll have resolution soon enough. You certainly aren't alone in maintaining your obstinate skepticism; hopefully your incessant posting and the 13 million shares short that accompany you make you feel at least slightly less insecure about your position.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Or the most likely scenario; that people are very calm because they have heard and seen that management has said they will be meeting with the IBs "during the month of March" to evaluate bids and from that select the partner. It's OE week Bonk and you likely need some pps downtick for your own or others' bets for this week. Nice try, but there is no panic in the streets. Things are unfolding as they are supposed to.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
so you're saying that mgmt is so stupid that it set the feb 28 bid deadline out there without knowing, based on 15 months of talks, that it would receive at least one acceptable bid. in other words, ioc decided to box themselves in a corner just for the fun of it.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have been an IOC long for over 3 years now, so would love to believe that the only reason for setting the Feb 28th deadline was knowledge of the level of at least one bid, but it is just as likely the government of PNG pressured them to set the deadline after more than a year of bidding. God, I hope that someone would have had the sense to put in a deadline after more than one year. The market would have continued to punish the stock pps relentlessly if they had not set it. That punishment would look like the mountain compared to the current mole hill of selling because of the current delay in an announcement.