Bids from "several" parties were received on February 28, and at least 2 bids were reported to have been from majors (any of which may be operators in a JKM joint bid). PM Peter O'Neill is meeting with the newly elected Japanese PM this week, CNOOC is in PNG, and the PM of Thailand will be in PNG next week. Meanwhile, the BOD supposedly met on March 9-10, and it wouldn't be surprising if it takes a week or two subsequent to bid selection for a contract to be signed, reported to the PNG government and announced publicly. I doubt it's just a coincidence that some of the most important individuals in the wealthiest countries in Asia and the largest LNG importers in the region are suddenly traveling to PNG and/or meeting with O'Neill over the next week, but even if that's the case and XOM, CVX or TOT is the winning bidder, it is still an encouraging sign that these countries are so engaged with O'Neill.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If these activities are bid related, you cannot then expect any kind of announcement imminently as O'Neil will not even meet with the Prime Minister of Thailand until March 21 at the earliest. Some of it has to be coincidence as you cannot honestly expect a deal with CNOOC, JAPEX and PTT.
As he is not meeting with anyone from the US does that, by inference, rule out Chevron and Exxon? Lets not read the tea leaves with a microscope.
We don't really know anything and will have to wait and see.
Maybe the initial request for proposals included a clause for best and final between select bidders and that's what's happening? Something in the boundaries of the request documents, stated in advance. ?
I think you need learn how to speak IOCese. I find it helps to down a bottle of cough syrup or two before listening to CCs, reading PRs, and reading through presentations. I also mentally put a "nome-sayin'?" after each point.
Have you not noticed the weasel language around "2 supermajors" points. let's recap:
Here is the quote from PNG Industry News:
“There is more than one supermajor involved … I can confirm that,” he told PNGIndustryNews.net.
Note this is from September 14, 2012 - 6 months ago. And what does "involved" mean, and what is Vissagio's definition of a "supermajor" - would Japex and Mitsui qualify?
Then on the Nov CC:
Pavel: "News several weeks ago, quoted as saying that at least two super majors have placed bids on the project. Can you confirm that quote? And can you elaborate on what you were conveying there?"
Hear is Collin's response (remember the cough syrup - I wll add the nomesayins in (brackets):
"Clearly, it's a quote by myself, which I can confirm (nomesayin'?). And as Phil has stated, we have national oil companies, we have majors, and we have utilities who are involved in the process (nomesayin'). So, very happy to say that I have made that quote (nomesayin'), based on very clear details and information that we have, unlike other sources which are often quoted, which people will not put their name to (nomesayin'). I think when someone does not put their name to a quote or a statement, I think you cannot attribute much to that statement or quote. (nomesayin'?"
Again that word "involved in the process"
Then last week at Wayne's presentation:
"Advisors confirm receipt of several bids, from the types of companies anticipated, to partner with InterOil on the Gulf LNG Project"
Hmmm, I see a lot of wiggle room in here.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Of course, Bonk. IOC wrote the book on vague expressions, ambiguous phrasing, and convenient wordsmithing. I used to call them Philisms, but that ailment is contagious, and Wayne and Colin seem to have gotten that flu. Putting all this aside, it is now March 18th, nearly three weeks after the bid deadline. If we have radio silence for the whole month, then what? Remember Treasure Hunter and Resourcarb's insistence that a deal was imminent, certainly to be announced in March? I am holding my breath...
It's a pretty broad leap you are taking here. Wiggle room? I think its clear IOC is on re Ord several times stating that the bidders were pre approved and were in the categories described. You have nothing concrete disputing this. Rbis the broad leap you make here.
Good luck longs
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I hope so
you see, what is hardly ever discussed here is the fact that the company will then be able to keep more of what it finds, and will be very well financed, with a system in place that worked well. Find a couple more fields even half this size, if in reasonable proximity to the processing facility, you have something very substantial. Stock can again double.