In an article last night about Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's trip to PNG, the following line was included, "The Thai delegation will visit a liquefied natural gas project to explore investment opportunities in energy there."
The implications are potentially much more significant than initially meets the eye for InterOil:
1) The article almost certainly refers to InterOil's project, as the offtake for the Gulf Project is largely available whereas PNG LNG's is largely consumed and there hasn't been enough gas discovered yet to underpin a 3rd train at PNG LNG.
2) In the past 3 years, InterOil has developed 10.3 tcfe of resources, and a very smart colleague of mine who was a petroleum engineer for years believes that there is at least another 8 tcfe left to be defined in Triceratops this year. Even after the coming sell-down, which is likely to be consummated with JKM, TOT, XOM and/or CVX, InterOil's interest in Elk/Antelope will probably only be reduced from 58.6% to some number above 40% and its interest in Triceratops will remain at 53%. Oil Search, a $10 billion company in PNG, only retained a 29% stake in PNG LNG.
3) Hence there's another "bite at the apple" for InterOil in which it can sell down a further slice of Elk/Antelope and/or Triceratops, probably at a significant premium to the initial sell-down since a major partner and operator will already be onboard, and
4) It can quickly ramp the Gulf project from 3.8 mtpa to a 2-train 7.6 mtpa with the additional investment from PTT for example and Thailand could benefit from most of the incremental offtake.
InterOil's stock has been flat over the past 3 years despite the addition of 10 - 20 tcfe of new resources (including the Triceratops discovery). 2013 is the year of monetization and unlocking 3 years of massive value creation, and with O'Neill as IOC's biggest promoter, I expect the stock to at least triple from here this year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You come up with the strangest stuff.
With respect to your assertions of your paragraph 2), basically, since December 31, 2009, InterOil has accomplished very little as evidenced by the following -- and certainly has NOT "DEVELOPED" much of anything:
1) The stock price hit the mid-$80s in January 2010, with a closing high of $83.70 and January 5, 2010 -- a price which has seldom been exceeded since.
2) The GLJ "best case" resource report of 12/31/09 showed 8.2 TCF and 156.5 million barrels of condensate, based on A-1 and A-2 (on which the 705 mmcf/d gas and 11,200 barrels of condensate flow test was conducted on December 1, 2009).
3) The LNG Project Agreement was signed at the end of 2009, which called for a
4) The purchase of a 2nd drilling rig was announced on February 9, 2010 -- which has sat idle for over 3 years.
5) The 40 exploration prospects had been identified by the end of 2009.
BTW, all of the above, except 1) are taken directly from the Letter from the Chairman (Phil Mulacek) in the 2009 Annual Report.
So, exactly what REAL progress in shareholder value and accomplishments have been racked up by IOC in the last 3+ years?
For one reason or another, IOC appears to have been mostly stalled or in retreat for the last 3+ years.
Hopes and dreams, hopes and dreams -- a changing landscape of BIG STORIES, basically NONE of which have come to fruition.
This shareholder certainly anticipates better over the next several years from our management and BOD.
It's been smart to trade around positions in IOC for 3 years, but this is a buy and hold period. I would advocate adding aggressively for what will be a major breakout very soon. Those who get too cute will miss the transformational move.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
i said this yesterday
nothing in the press or long posts picks up on the idea that when you empower a team with cash, they can go sign a new land lease and start again with their experience and proven track record. they get to keep much more of what they find from that point on. its an exciting possibility, but they need to take care of business and fire Phil if the deal is not delivered as he stated. no more cat and mouse, no more organized plunges to hurt investors. no more misstatements to investors. look what happened to chk because of crooked leadership? chk will be hurting for a long, long time. ioc is supposed to be a new, rising star. they need to act like it.