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InterOil Corporation Message Board

  • ioc_short_squeeze ioc_short_squeeze Jun 7, 2013 8:08 PM Flag

    Its clear Exxon wants to buy IOC, too many variables point to this

    Suddenly, they need 2 more months? For what? They already bid with a FIRM, CONFORMING proposal. Although Byker only recently revealed this.

    The shorts tried the new thesis "EA field cannot support one train" and their latest "underpin does not mean fully support" but those no longer play.

    I put it to you that exxon needed the extra time to offer to buy the whole company. That would take up the extra time, allowing exxon scientists and engineers to go take their own measurements, then firm up their offer. Also to go work the politics of getting PNG approval for an utterly derisked project post purchase.

    IOC has no other logical reason to delay and add 2 more months to an already elongated process, a process I might add, Governor Kavo predicted with pinpoint accuracy.

    Exxon is going to buy IOC and they want to know what range to bid because they know, instinctively, if not literally, Shell will be right behind them with a higher offer (potentially).

    I suspect but cannot prove Chandler and Paulsen knew this already. Wall Street did not like the 2 more months delay and some of the short talking heads took full advantage of the *appearance* they could argue this presents.

    ITS EXXON, not boom boom the clown oil and gas. EXXON. That ends all argument about how serious this is.

    I think Exxon is preparing a counter proposal to buy the whole thing. Otherwise, the delay cannot be explained. Do the originally contemplated deal to be fair to all the offerors, then if Exxon wanted to do some other smaller side deal, fine. But be fair to the original bidders who helped assure Exxon was honest with its already provided conforming, compliant proposal.

    That's my take and I think we hear in the next 2 weeks. I also think the rumor will start in PNG rag mags and this stock will blow its top. FWIW DYODD

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Whichever, it is going to take a lot less than two months.

    • But this is a "show me" market. IOC has been saying this for so long that no one believes them anymore. That is why there are so many shorts. Once they find an offer that is substantial then they find oil this will be the hottest stock in the market. All people will be scratching their heads saying "why didn't we buy more?"

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Really very well put. I can't imagine what the shorts think they know, but I'm sure they are far better informed than Mr. Chandler. Looking forward to the next few weeks.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Exxon shareholders will want to know why the company would invest, taking on a risk factor of say "10" for an ROI of say "3" when they could buy the whole thing and the risk factor becomes nil (equal to being in PNG which Exxon is already) and the roi goes to 12, or 4-fold better for Exxon. With risk decreased exponentially, and rio increased by 4 fold, why just invest????

      Which is the smarter play for Exxon ? Duh?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Just one question, team...why would an Exxon buyout offer come in BEFORE the delineation wells are drilled. Doesn't make much sense to me.

    • After having weathered so many ups and downs in the past few years and endured so much BS from the shorts and self-important sewer rats, I would love to see IOC got taken out at multiples of the current pps and stick it up the shorts collective #$%$. Be that as it may, a buy out at this point is not a good thing for IOC or the longs. A buy out would short change us big time. However, I dont think a buy out is in the card. It is simply too difficult for a reasonable price to be reached. Upon completion of the sell down of E/A ,resources become reserves and IOC will be that much more valuable. However, to the would be buyer, IOC only has proved E/A, the rest is still pretty much an gueestimate. IOC's license to drill in the unexplored million of acres is just that. It is worth zero until proven and no one will pay up. IOC on the other hand will view it differently since now all political BS etc etc is behind it, anything it discovered can add to the bottom line of the company overnight. Why would it want to give it all away at this very point in time.
      Holding some shares for the long run will be richly rewarded, IMHO.

    • Interesting thought Squeeze. Did Exxon submit one of the non-conforming bids identified in previous bidder disclosures? With a market cap of $4B, why wouldn't Exxon try to buy IOC for a song?

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to will2bgreat
      • Byker's last word on this is Exxon successfully submitted a conforming proposal in response to the request for proposals. No indication exists if this was so, right out of the gate, or in hindsight...belatedly.

        You have heard or read out here, Shell also recently paid a visit with a valuation expert, walking through the refinery. If true, why would IOC let Shell back in when they had their chance with the bidding? Maybe to allow them to size up a counter proposal to the Exxon buyout offer that Shell is aware is coming. That would explain why Shell sent someone just after the company decided it
        was moving ahead with Exxon.

        It really looks like the insiders are very well aware Exxon is going to buy the whole thing.

        If that is true, and if it explains why they would let Shell back in to walk through, I have some indigestion about Paulsen and Chandler buying more stock during this period. If you catch my drift...then the delays we are seeing and feeling now, are the same general thing. Hurry up and wait, so sucker muppets can be separated from their now very, very valuable stock. Not a nice image, to see billionaires scooping up stock on tremendous volatility at the expense of the uninformed investor.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I tend to agree with you. Please see my post from yesterday regarding 60 day language. I'm curious as to your thoughts.

      good luck longs

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to jdeo1969
      • never treat corporate dogma and documentation as being all that meaningful. If Exxon offered $ 200 a share, and the company turned it down, then a year later the company was struggling to deliver shareholder value, well, imagine what happens then?

        I also reiterate, and with great certainty, if Exxon has discussed a buyout, they have to tell us, and they should have done so immediately. This said, it contradicts my position. if and when its revealed, inquiring minds will want to know, when did paulsen and Chandler learn of it. And, do the wild swings in the stock translate to a greed factor for YOUR SHARES? Do you catch my drift?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Jdeo, What's in your heart? .....buyout or sell down?....Thirsty minds want to now?
        Stay thirsty my friend

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • IOC_SHORT_SQUEEZE, Your thoughts are plausible. Still one more risk for shorts. I can see the press release. " EXXON MAKES 15 BILLION DOLLAR OFFER TO BUY INTEROIL."

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sailhappily
      • Actually, with Oil Search hitting oil, its quite possible Exxon is ready to commit to the region in a big way, and Shell would not want that without some skin in the game too. The only thing that could require 60 days, after already allowing for bid submissions, resubmissions and clarifications, outright declaration to us, the shareholders, that Exxon has submitted a conforming offer, is a deeper evaluation Exxon needs to make a much deeper commitment, and that would have to be a buyout,. Not just a larger sell down, or perhaps a sell-down of Triceratops? IOC should not be putting one deal, the one they wanted, on hold to cater to some counter proposal....not unless its a buyout offer.

        Incidentally, if I am right and bringing Shell in is to keep Exxon in earnest with their impending buyout offer, we should have been told of this already. The company cannot come into possession of information that indicates a buy-out offer is imminent without telling us. And if Shell knows it, and Kavo knows it, then Paulsen and Chandler know it.

        It would be in IOC's very best interest to get this new data out there. IMMEDIATELY.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • LIAR ...Nothing you say it true! !!!

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