IOC shareholders are understandably frustrated with the stock's performance in the past month, but the volatility is just a function of some misperceptions that are very close to being reconciled. Management has not discussed the specific terms of the deal with anyone, but a large institutional shareholder came away from recent relevant conversations and meetings with the following takeaways:
1) The material terms of the deal were agreed to at least 1 month ago, and IOC management is literally not even involved in the remaining process, which just comprises attorneys drafting final contracts -- the deal should be announced very soon.
2) IOC management seems to be extremely happy with the outcome of the sell-down with XOM, and they're anxious and excited to announce the details. He is convinced that IOC's BOD voted unanimously to accept the XOM offer, indicating that the bid terms must have been very compelling.
3) The bidding was very competitive, with multiple majors, implying IOC selected the best outcome among many alternatives.
4) A new paradigm for IOC is about to begin, with a new CEO, extensive drilling, progressive sell-downs and commercial opportunities, etc...
5) While management is typically rattled by the stock's volatility, they come across now as very confident and undaunted by the short term irrationalism knowing that the truth will soon be revealed and will be a game changer for the company.
6) There has been a concerted effort by IOC's "competitors" to spread misinformation, and IOC management believes that there may be an effort in motion to buy the company before the XOM deal closes.
With approximately 30 days remaining until XOM's exclusivity expires, I believe a deal will be announced in the next 2 weeks. The government has already accepted the XOM deal, and any insinuation to the contrary is just noise. After years of being flat despite significant fundamental value creation, IOC's stock should double over the next month or so.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
A few things that make you sound even more of nutcase and a phony pumper.
1- "Material terms were agreed at least a month ago" and we have written evidence that XOM said 1 month ago that they had JUST started to negotiate and it was too early...
2- Any Managment that gets "rattled by stock price" is shady and should not be trusted.
3- Can you name one misinofrmation that "competitors" have spread about this company?
Thanks for being the Hand-Holder-in Chief.
There are two of your points about which I sincerely hope you are correct.
1) The stock "should" double over the next month or so, and
2) "Management believes that there may be an effort in motion to buy the company before the XOM deal closes."
More than your contention about 1), I hope management is correct about 2) and that a bidding war erupts following the instigation of a HOSTILE TAKEOVER, resulting from a BOD rejection of a low-ball takeover offer.
Alas, this kind of statement about a potential takeover from management is nothing new.
At last years AGM, one of management's greatest concerns expressed at the Spinnaker Lounge gathering was that there'd be a takeover attempt before management could realize their vision for the company.
I'd welcome management to have to face up to one of their greatest concerns -- in spades.
"At last years AGM, one of management's greatest concerns expressed at the Spinnaker Lounge gathering was that there'd be a takeover attempt before management could realize their vision for the company."
And with that and other info you gathered you made a big bet that as soon as the elections were over and O'Neill was elected, the project approval would be announced in a big way. When that didn't happen you blamed management and everyone but yourself. And that hasn't stopped. Stop blaming others for your poor decisions VS and man up.
Pickboone has been spot on in the past...this is GREAT news...and no shorts -- intepertation of an insitituional conversation with mgt is not a reg FD problem...just intense due diligence....in a few weeks we will see 130 plus..just ignore the negative bull until then
This sounds wonderful, pick and makes sense. The only thing no one has been able to explain is why, if this info is out, we have no new buyers hoping to cash in on this "double" windfall. Where is Goldman Sachs, etc., why are no significant number of shorts trying to cover? A mystery to me.
There are no details about terms, etc. not previously disclosed., and it essentially represents impressions and opinions, as important as they might be. What precisely in that posting would represent a violation in your opinion?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Very good points Pick. I spoke to them yesterday and heard the exact words you wrote up top. The deal is done. It is just a matter of paperwork and that's all she wrote! Going well and Exxon - the worlds largest oil company are our partners! What a partner to have. Simply buy on the dips and you will be rewarded. Forget about the negative comments you see here. Look at IOC historic over promising and under delivering. From corrupt government and parliament to getting O'Neill elected. It took 3-4 years for this to complete BUY. BUY. BUY. THE DEAL IS DONE !
Sentiment: Strong Buy