Art, InterOil today refuted every misleading argument that resulted in a 40 point slide since last month. The stock is down today as a result of the market's mistaking Wayne's commentary on the exclusivity period to imply that a deal won't be done within that timeframe. This is absolutely an incorrect read. We'll see a final deal shortly, and it will be substantially more lucrative to IOC than the efficient market hypothesis would indicate. A deal is closer than ever and the stock will very soon begin to reflect reality
From the use of your language it appears you have gone to the school of Phil and Board. No time frame is correct because IOC made you believe it was 60 days from O'Neill comment. It will be more like one year from reading the report that we just read. Exxon still needs approval and nothing is going to be completed this year. Hate to be the bearer of bad news but I am 99.4 % right on with this one. We think that Exxon could sign a deal with InterOil in the next few months. However, we imagine any deal would be highly contingent on results of additional appraisal on the resource, particularly given Exxon’s preference to market 1P reserves. Our understanding is that drilling to date on Elk/Antelope has been on the crest of the
structures and not on the flanks which means there is significant uncertainty about the resource size. We think that a further 2 or 3 appraisal wells would be required to adequately define the resource. Given the time required to drill and evaluate in PNG (prepare communities, prepare site, drill the wells, then get an independent certification), we think this appraisal could likely be complete by 2H14
Elk/Antelope could add value to OSH/STO if attractive farmin terms are offered —
Exxon is negotiating exclusively with InterOil, aiming to access 4-5tcf to underpin an
expansion train. Exxon would need unanimous JV approval to bring Elk/Antelope gas
into the JV, which could be achieved by offering JV partners farmin rights for their
existing share at reasonable terms. We think this could occur late CY14 after appraisal
Resourcearb can hype the stock all he wants and throw speculations around about the terms.
Until a deal is consummated and REAL terms are announced, those with money are apparently unimpressed.
Show shareholders the DEAL MONEY or VALUE that can be discounted to present.
Then, we'll see what IOC investors are willing to pay for a share.
IOC is a "show me" stock -- not a BS me stock anymore, as it has been for most of its existence.
Connect the dots.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This deal is NOT being done in 2013 nor 2014. Exxon needs appraisal and the need JV to agree. Done until 2014 maybe 2015. Why didn't Wayne say they would get it done in 60 days? It is more like 600 days!!
Couldnt agree more VS. I vigorously contend that te resource at EA and the other prosepects are top notch. Some of the best NG fields in Asia. A top quality mgmt team would have monetized them to GREAT shareholder advantage a while ago. Most E&P companies would go wild to have the IOC resource. The bungling has been endless though. Lets not forget that the resource is top notch and that mgmt has bungled it. Under the stewardship of a quality company we wouldnt be having this discussion. We would be retired. We would also have already drilled more at Triceratops and proved that up, we would have drilled at least 2 more wells at EA and drilled our other top 3 targets.
As was stated years ago....right resource, wrong company.