The under-construction two-train LNG plant is targeting 6.9 million tonnes per annum of capacity in 2014, indicating this major project may expand up to 10.35Mtpa if a deal goes ahead with InterOil. As of late last year, GLJ Petroleum Consultant’s figures for the field included a best case estimate of 9.07Tcf of initial recoverable sales gas and 135.4 million barrels of initial recoverable condensate.
ok, lets say that all that you say will come about. heck lets say there is 10 times the amount of oil, and ten times the chance of a quick deal for ten times the profit imagined by any of ye longs....
but you are NOT asking the most important question even in the above scenario. the question you need to be asking yourself is: has ALL that good news (and heavenly expectations) already been priced in the current stock price levels???????? a simple question, no bash, no pump. just ask yourself that, thats all!
it cannot be priced into this already for a few reasons, the first is when IOC started this they assumed only 3t gas, now there is maybe 9-10.3t gas. Second, there was never any condensate and now we have 136 m barrels. also, the Esso LNG plant was never there until few years ago. Plus, look at the price of the stock when there was just a hint of a deal - we hit $106 in minutes. that should be good enough reason to be buying here. Regardless of the time frame. there is plenty of product in the ground, and EXXON will get it out. They will pay for this right. It will only help the over budgeted plant they have now.
The amount of money IOC will receive will drive the price up. I am in this for the long run, not for the new boat for summertime. Exxon is a great partner and they certainly know how to turn a profit. They have experience in that region, more so than others there. That makes me feel fine. When IOC started there they were told the LNG was about 3t. Now after many tests they are assuming over 9t. That is a significant difference. That tells me that if EXXON drills deep, say 10,000 feet and they hit oil, there is no end to the value of IOC stock.. Be patient and you will be rewarded. They say 135 million barrels of condensate. Go deeper and see what is there.