The deal that I continue to believe that IOC is working on is not just with Exxon, and I am not referring to uncorroborated rumors of a rival bid from Shell, Total, or any other company that some would like to throw out there.
I think that IOC wants an equity part of PNG LNG. If this is the case, IOC is negotiation with Exxon, Oil Search Limited , NPCP, Santos, JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration, Mineral Resources Development Company and Petromin PNG Holdings Limited.
I think if the deal were merely for a straight sell of their assets in Elk/Antelope, the deal would been done by now. However, IOC obtaining equity in the project means a complete reshuffling of the interests of all of the joint venture partners.
That is a lot of moving parts.
I also think there will be increasing pressure from the government on all parties as they near the completion of the construction of the LNG facility. The government will want the construction of the additional train(s) to commence to keep the activity going.
This is merely my OPINION and it is optimistic and is not based upon any sources. Also keep in mind that I took substantial profits at $71 per share and $81 per share.
Good luck to all.
Interesting. I like to add that there is also the PNG Government that have interest in both EA and PNG-LNG. Their share in PNG-LNG will increase if IOC gets equity. It will cause dilution in other existing shareholders of PNG-LNG, and they might not like it. This is really complicated.
It's worth the waiting to see what will happen. The gas is still there.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
'I think IOC wants an equity part of PNG LNG'
You are only a couple of weeks late in your groundbreaking conclusion. Citi report on SHU squarely points to IOC angling for equity in all of PNG LNG's eventual trains.
Dos, you just continue to prove to the rest of us what a jerk you truly are. Raiseyou never claimed to be the first or only person to point out these things. But he does offer the above issues as the primary reason for the delay in signing. Note his quote "I think if the deal were merely for a straight sell of their assets in Elk/Antelope, the deal would been done by now". This is a perspective worthy of sharing. Whether one agrees with it or whether it is totally unique is irrelevant. Raiseyou is one of the very few posters here (or on SHU, for that matter) worth reading and considering. Your posts, by contrast, are never additive to the discussion, IMO. You have always been a very negative and critical force on the site, and are very predictable, but irritating nonetheless.
I never said my opinion was ground breaking or original, I merely said it was what I think is going on. Thanks for adding condescension to the discussion. A fantastic contribution on your part.
I agree with your stated opinion and I certainly hope this will be concluded.....soon.
My main concern is bonk. When I suggested, in late May, that the deal could include a stake in PNG LNG he responded thusly: "I see zero chance of that. Literaly (sic) zero, not 0.0000001%. But zero." And he is the smartest guy in the world, right?
P.S. raise, you responded to that post also, a short and sweet "No" Glad to see you onboard now.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
raiseyou33, I think your hypothesis is as good as any I have seen. But I fail to understand how the tradeoffs are worth it for the near term investor if such haggling creates too much complexity and uncertainty and the issue could be solved by going to a straight sell of the assets. The stock price does not, nor has it ever suffered from a lack of future profit. There are other prospects to create that future. We clearly suffer from the fact that we cannot close a deal. Solve that problem and the later growth issues will look easy by comparison. There are limits to investor's patience. I am more than happy to NOT own part of PNGLNG. Just give us monetization!
If I am negative on anything it has been timing, which is why I took profits to play in other names.
I don't know if this stock is a good deal for a short term investor but for me it is a long term small speculative play in a rather boring overall portfolio.
I am content to hold until the facts change. I would even considering buying more if it dropped below 60 but that would just be a trade.