Nothing has changed other than the stock price. I keep in mind that at least 8 trillion cubic feet of gas (probably more as twice certified) is in IOC's Elk & Antelope fields. That Exxon has a 95% completed LNG plant some 50 or so pipelines miles distant and needs more gas for at least one perhaps two additional trains. That this gas is comparatively cheap to get out of the ground. That Shell is reported to have bid for Elk & Antelope and perhaps others too. That this is "wet gas" meaning it has oil like fluids which can be stripped and sold at prices almost as high as oil. That Japan has shut all it's nuclear reactors and needs cleaner fuel (think gas) for it's electrical generators. That Asia in general has a rising demand for gas. That gas is four times more costly in Asia than in USA. That IOC is located near Asia thus shipping costs are relatively inexpensive. That the PNG government under Prime Minister O'Neill is cracking down on corruption. That PNG wants the revenue and jobs that would be created. That PNG wants a good international reputation in order to attract more foreign investment for it's natural resources. That IOC's new CEO Dr. Hession has a successful track record in prior negotiations with Exxon. That IOC has several other gas fields to develop which suggests there will be more good gas finds. That IOC shorts attempt to scare retail holders out of their shares. That numerous institutions and funds continue to hold many million of IOC shares. They are smarter and have better research and contacts than retail holders. So I'm good here. You? Less
Sentiment: Strong Buy
That is an excellent layout of the bull case for IOC, and it is the reason that I and others hold on to our long positions despite (in my case) four years of frustration with IOC management. WHY, in all this time, have they been unable to monetize these assets? WHY do they drag out this supposed "deal" negotiation month after month with no explanation to the stockholders, who they must know are intensely frustrated with their silence on the subject which most interests us? The last two CCs in May and August have left us all hanging with no satisfactory explanations. The analysts at those CCs have been too timid to even try to pin them down with definitive answers. Even the stockholders at the annual meeting in June let them off the hook. Now, once again we look forward next month to yet another CC almost nine months after the close out of bids on March 1, 2013, with still "no news" about any deal. Are they going to stiff us again at the next CC with still nothing definite about "the deal"? Are the analysts going to once again fail in their job, which is to get answers to that question? Haven't we just about had enough of management stone walling its stockholders? Their job is supposed to be to "build stockholder value." They have apparently built asset value over the past four years since the drilling of the first Elk/Antelope well in 2009, but no stockholder value. The pps is less today than it was four years ago. And that is ridiculous,is it not?
It is really time for IOC management to come clean and tell us the truth. Is there in fact "no deal" as the bashers claim? If there is no longer any negotiation going on then tell us so! If there was an offer that was too low to accept then tell us so and tell us why!
Just the truth, guys, and nothing but the truth! PLEASE!
Stop crying like a baby; you know they can't say anything with closed negociations ! I've been a holder and have added shares since 2006 and have been through the wringer like everyone else. We must WAIT till the deal is done.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The stock price has gone done, IOC has had all of YHE bids for almost 8 months, no one trusts them, no one wants to deal with them, PNG will dole out the licenses later on to their favs
Fact#1. All that you say above is absolutely true. Way too much potential in the company, can't deny it.
But Fact#2 is something you do not even mention: How does this company treat it's shareholders? Is there transparency, is there any respect for us? Or are we just dirt to them? Sometimes, potential is not enough you know. How you treat the little guy is sometimes more imp.
Imagine yourself being a partner in a company. Can you be whimsical about whether you want to be in or out? Isn't it the reason you invested was because the company has a good potential to succeed? What matters most for a shareholder is that the company is progressing or not. Not what price somebody is going to buy it from you today or tomorrow.
The same with IOC. Just look at the fundamentals. Read the official report. Not rubbish opinions. Be discerning.
The fundamentals look good. There are bids. And they are negotiating.
What's in it for me here at the MB? About last week, somebody mentioned about the OSH presentation or annual report. I looked it up. Saw the map and realized that the OSH gas fields are actually farther from the PNG-LNG plant than the EA gas fields. I am now more convinced that the gas will be monetized.
It's also worth it to read the MB. But you must learn to separate the useful info from the rubbish.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"Nothing has changed other than the stock price."
Isn't that the point? That nothing has happened?
How long is a piece of string and almost 8 months after the final "binding bid deadline" and almost 5 months after a "deal" with Exxon
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Corporate management may well believe it is in the interest of shareholders to not make public comments. Remember the large institutional and fund holders with their millions of shares continue to hold and are subject to the same lack of public information as us. However; perhaps those big holders have been updated in confidence which is also a good reason for us to hold as they may know more than us and they are not selling.
We'll get an update at the quarterly meeting in a few weeks.