85-105, but there is not necessarily anything regarding deal closure. it's about the resource, etc. but it appears 85 is the near term to answer your question. I hope this helps. I pasted what I could given the space available.
Keep in mind the following:
Only assumes the lowest number of gas reserves estimates and price per mcf
• Assumes nothing for the amount of cash they are receiving from Total
• Assumes nothing for the amount of cash flow they will receive from the LNG plant for a 30 year+ timeframe
• Assumes nothing for any additional partners brought into the project
• Assumes nothing for any additional exploration acreage
• Assumes nothing for the amount of Elk/Antelope (30%) that IOC still owns, assuming they sell off this to another partner (XOM, OSH, etc.). Morgan Stanley believes this alone is worth $30+/share however was not included in the target price.
These are a few excerpts a few days following deal announcement:
Friday’s deal places IOC in its best position ever (funding; proven mgmt team; active, high-impact exploration). While implied value lowers our PT to $85, we see medium-term upside with lower risk. If you passed on IOC before, it’s time to take the meeting; a lot has changed (incl. the stock price).
While the topside fell on Friday (hence, our lower NAV today), we believe the Total deal put a higher floor under the stock. In a worst-case scenario, IOC gets the completion payment and, assuming there is sub-3.5 Tcfe (absolute worst case), IOC will still be able to sell its gas to Exxon, a $30/sh total value in our view. No other payments due from Total. We don’t believe that IOC, XOM (was in public negotiations with IOC), or TOT, after due diligence, believe that there is less than one LNG train worth of gas (~4.5 Tcfe).