Yall longs are investing on the wrong premises. I learned that lesson the hard way in 2009 (trying to short the market, when it kept going up for months).
The market's reason for going up or down is "liquidity". Add "liquidity" (as in 2009 & 2010), more cheap dollars, the market goes up. Take the "liquidity" away (no QEs), and "inflated" market prices recede. No QE3, market falls, particularly, on the awful fundamentals.
My guess is that the market will drift down for now. We could see another squeeze before year-end, but we are coming up on the "January-effect" (sell-off). That doesn't bode well for POT, CF, or MOS. It may not happen till late January. I have positioned myself short for a late-January trough.
The only stocks moving up or at near-highs are a selected few darlings that the market is using to buoy the indexes, MOS not being one of them.
Take a 2011 or a 2012 loss against gains and call it a day. This is not your typical market cycle type of market. It's a FED market.
I think a better way to describe it is strong dollar...weak market, weak dollar... strong market. The relationship is similar to what you describe, but more directly explains why the relationship holds. With a strong dollar, US exports are at an economic disadvantage to other countries, thus driving the potential future earnings down. With a weak dollar, US exports have an economic advantage, driving future earnings (in US dollar terms) up. Quantitative easing weakens the dollar and therefore pumps up the market.