too much logic in your argument, my take is fertilizer companies rock the boat to produce less with higher prices, and then when the demand increases, higher prices equal bigger profits.. from time to time market needs a reset to create a new baseline.. today is a reboot to get a clean beginning.. these fertilizer companies have a monopoly in producing and setting prices for basic human needs.. no way, they're going suffered because some bogus reasons. at the end of the day, MOS is going move back up above $50
Actually I think this is a good thing longer term for lower cost players like Mosaic and Potash. Both can make money at $300/ton . This will not benefit higher cost players so you will see some players exiting the Potash market. Potash is under applied because of its cost. India for example, could use a lot more Potash if the price falls. Volumes will go up and some higher cost projects will be cancelled so then supply will fall.
Russia's Uralkali (URKA) is the only producer that can ship directly to China by rail. It is looking to increase its volume to China. It's new strategy is volume over pricing . At lower potash prices, it expects to capitalize on its competitive advantage vis-à-vis China by significantly increasing share, It expects this share increase to more than compensate for the lower potash prices.