it wuld be crazy for bhp to build jansen and not buy mos
they could get mos for 30 billion. I have heard from abb that they do not want phosphate. phosphate has a bright future. yes the margins are not as high as potash. they are a lot closer right now. I do not know if mos would except 30 billion
BHP has interest as we all know in this industry. i happen to agree, it would be crazy to go forward w/ jansen; taking out MOS is a diversified income stream with a MUCH better balance sheet than POT, a former target of BHP. that being said, there are factors we don't know about, maybe as simple as BHP ego, etc. and i hate to buy on 'takeover target' hopes. it just doesn't work. i am a buyer of MOS though based on fundamentals at these levels; its probably dead money for 24 mos i'm guessing. the higher PPS goes however the less interested BHP gets, IMHO. if i was so smart i wouldn't be posting here, thats for sure. GLTA.
BHP can have MOS for a lot less than 30b. If they are interested, they are buying MOS stock in the open market, where mark. cap. has dropped to 17 billion. They, of course, will offer a small premium to capture control.
If you believe that MOS might not accept $30 billion, I guess you would doubt that they would accept half that. But that is precisely what their investment advisers are telling them would be a good idea to offer for MOS rather than to go forward with Jansen. I have to admit, if they can get MOS for $15 billion and if MOS is stupid enough to leave the $3+ billions in cash which they have on hand so as to help BHP defray the cost of the acquisition, then that would make sense to me. And once you chop the price down effectively to $12 billion, even I would go for it.