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PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF Message Board

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  • market_logic2010 market_logic2010 Aug 7, 2010 3:48 PM Flag

    DBA Stagnant but Grain Prices Up??

    DBA calls have done very nicely---some of the Aug & Sept call strikes are up more than 1000%--ten fold or more. DBA is moving just as I expected--didn't quite hit $30--but a nice move.

    But here is the most important point--the grain rally has miles to go. The Russian/Ukrianian/eastern European harvest will be much worse than even now discussed, and Australia is having problems as well (drought in the west and some locusts). The Canadian harvest may be impeeded because of wet conditions in some areas and drought in others. Parts of South America have been dry as well. The Indian monsoons have been normal or excessively wet in some areas, but well below normal in other areas. I expect to see DBA into the mid $30s before summer ends, and if anything happens to imperil the US harvests (eg extreme heat or drought in the southern plains, or excessive moisture in the eastern corn belt from tropical depressions coming up from the Gulf) then we could see a repeat or surpassing of the 2008 highs in the $40s.

    DBA call options are still cheap--and unlike futures--your risk is limited to the price of the calls. I would suggest Sept. $27, $28 and Oct. $28, $29, $30. No guarentees, but they look like good bets. Do your own due dilegence.

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