I'm much newer to this board than some of you, and I turn over my portfolio way too often, but it seems to me that this company is in the right place at the right time.... There was a good post one or 2 ago that suggests (no surprise, but it IS worth the occasional restatment) that it's proving to be a "big winner" is no sure thing, BUT
I like the odds -- a lot.... and think that anybody who exits before they (of course, it's a possibility) fall on their face (again ?) had better have the discipline not to take a peek back because I think s/he'd turn into a pillar of salt, so bitter would s/he feel about having jumped ship on the "anti-Titanic." (That is, this will make some of its holders -- me, maybe, dear L-rd!, inclunded -- REALLY RICH! ... so hang in there -- esp'ly since this a choppy market and an over-owned (by inst'ns) stock. For all that, this is one where the little guy has an edge. Be patient -- and be rewarded!
Glad I triggered some very intelligent thinking, even on the part of the fellow who's lost patience with ARRS -- sometimes, it's so right [psychologically] to "move on" that one almost has to -- although I think that one is mindless if one doesn't use the other half of the brain to appraise whether the decision is "irrational."
Which, of course, I reiterate that it WOULD BE.
I've often -- well, not as often as I probably think -- gotten in to stox a little early. But I think that ARRS has "stepped to the plate."
Granted, not everybody hits it out of the park, but this analogy is along the lines of "do you know how many kids play Little League? Do you know what pct. of them have an at bat in the Major Leagues?" ... ARRS is one of a handful of the literally thousands of high tech companies that could be a superstar and isn't priced accordingly.
Another old post of mine predicted a buyout as if I were "wired" (or psychic.) I stand by that post. And that's why I think that folks lambasting analysts for not trotting out a crystal ball are "beside the point."
Moreover, companies like this can NOT be said to be "cyclic." Rather, it's a case of people wondering whether they'll have "a business" 2 or 5 years ahead, given that they appear to have bet the ranch on a certain technology.
Well, that's the "rap" in brief.... But I think that it's a bum rap -- ARRS has survived to "adolescence" in a very high mortality industry. For whatever reason, it doesn't command great respect, but that's all the more reason why logic dictates that all involved (Board and mgt.) can and will "take the money and run." This is probably altogether the wrong stock for traders who literally ask "What have you done for me lately?" of their stox and mean "in the last week" when they say "lately," but it's got to be a core holding for almost anybody else.
And since folks have mentioned their "alternates," I'll do the same -- ORCT, WIND, CMTL.... and a great big short on RIMM.
I bought WDC at 8 instead of STX back in 2004 and let it ride up to 19, then bailed before it went past 20. I think both WDC and STX are solid for the next few years. You are correct concerning the temerity of the analysts on ARRS not wanting to forecast 2007 and beyond.
from you mouth (or fingers and/or keyboard) to wall street's ears (attention). :)
i will not argue with you over the fact that arris is a good company, but when is it going to hold a gain? are we going to have to see 11 again before we head on to 15? i don't think so, but with arris it seems like you never know.
There is a danger in believing too much in a stock. That makes you an emotional trader which will take you down quickly. While someone waits months for a stock to make a dollar move, they could of made more than that on other stocks. Fundamentals mean nothing if there is no interest in the stock. I've learned that the hard way. I've already wasted time on this stock and I need to move on to a stock that moves up when the market does, and not in just 20 cent increments. Personally, I don't plan to hold through earnings but will sell just prior to it. Just my opinion.